On the three large plays, I get spotted 3 runs, 2 runs, and 1 run in the top of the first inning, and I'm going to lose each one. SFN and TBA are still going, but I'm not holding my breath. Anyway, go look at a win expectancy chart, multiply those together, then enter some raffles with those odds, because you'll have a decent shot at winning a big screen TV if you can keep this up. And each loss has a nice little WTF ARE U SERIOUS element to it.
LAN: Down 3 in 9th, two on no out and Manny hits a ball 6 feet short of the fence.
SFN: Edgar Renteria of all people hitting grannies off JAKE PEAVY.
TBA: Worst of all. SEA got the lead with a three run inning by hitting two rbi triples that are both routine deep fly balls and easily get caught by a guy at normal depth, but they've got Kapler playing little league distance in center for some insane reason. Nice little 375 foot out in the 8th that would have tied the game if it had an extra foot, too.
Anyway, the days of a few plays are over. I'm being too cautious this early, and variance is just going to own my ass with a couple plays per day. Especially when things get ultra sharp in mid-season. A lot of the plays are probably just going to be matchbook lines early the day of the game. I'll still bet some games the day before if I expect movement so I can gobble up some useless useless equity.
Update: And Arizona blows a 3 run lead in the 6th, giving up 4 runs. Yeah. FML.
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