Wednesday, December 31, 2008
Tuesday, December 30, 2008
More Georgetown
I should have noted that Pitt plays GT in DC on Saturday. If Pitt wins that game, it would drop GT's odds of winning the BE by 15-20%. GT will be favored. If GT wins, and 5/1 or anything similar is still around, you'd be insane not to hit it. I might hedge a small portion on the Pitt ML.
Adding to 12/31
Middle Tenn +1
Evansville +8
Free Monies
Bodog has Georgetown 5/1 to win the Big East. They've already beat UConn, at UConn, which was huge for their chances. I ran a few thousand simulations of conference play based on hypothetical spreads -> ML conversions, and Georgetown wins the Big East between 30-40% of the time. That range includes some smoothing of efficiency stats that are likely to regress somewhat throughout the year.
Just got back, full update later tonight.
6-7 yesterday, with most wins big and most losses close, including one by .5 because Curry couldn't hit 3 of 4 FTs after torching me with LOL 3-point barrages from half court a few times earlier this year.
Totals made earlier over iphone. More to come probably.
Seton Hall o153
Santa Clara u139
Niagara -5.5
Monday, December 29, 2008
Record Update
10-4 yesterday, overtime on the Buffalo over prevented 11-3.
I'll do the ROI/win% update when I get more time.
Sunday, December 28, 2008
Quick note - I got an email asking at what line I wouldn't take a play anymore.
It depends, but generally I would take the same play 1/2 a point worse on sides, and 1 point worse on totals. No more. You're turning 55/56% plays into 53/54% plays, roughly, but it still beats vig. Any further and you're coin-flipping longterm. This of course presumes you accept CBB closing lines on Pinnacle as efficient.
Saturday, December 27, 2008
Up and Running
Rustic Vermont B&B without cell phone reception somehow has a wireless hotspot in its living room. Plays shortly.
Wednesday, December 24, 2008
Record Update 12/24
Destroyed close yesterday on game lines, but ended up slightly down. I was probably due for that, but then ran hot on 2H lines. 2H bets are not included in expected win% or ROI because 1) it's harder for me to track close 2) they're not the most effiicient markets 3) I don't have the requisite push % data. I will soon be attending graduate courses and won't have much time to obsessively check halftime scores / run stats through models for a couple hours. So, they're only 10% of plays YTD but will probably be very few and far between starting in a week.
Updated record excludes one 2H winner that I didn't get posted until the 2nd half was underway.
Rec / Win% / eWin%: 60-31-1 / 65.9% / 56.0%
Tuesday, December 23, 2008
Monday, December 22, 2008
Record Update 12/22
10-6 today, did very well on totals. I'll break down ATS/Totals stats in a little bit.
Rec / Win% / eWin%: 50-21-1 / 70.4% / 55.2%
Sunday, December 21, 2008
Saturday, December 20, 2008
Record Update 12/20
Rec / Win% / eWin%: 38-15-1 / 71.7% / 55.2%
I'll also start posting records by week, ending with Sunday. eWin% should drop slowly if the last couple years are any indication. Underrated and overrated teams will lose that status, and variance in efficiency numbers creating some WTF opening lines will smooth out.
Friday, December 19, 2008
CBB Championship Futures
Below is a link of Greek and Bodog NCAA championship futures that I made to do some quick side by side comparisons. It is in percentage terms, meaning whatever number is given is how often that team would need to win the championship in order for you to break even. As usual there is a lot of vig built in. The probabilities of winning add up to ~200% on each site.
Link: Futures Spreadsheet
There might be a little value in Greek-Pittsburgh and Bodog-Georgetown. Maybe a couple others. The strength of the Big East throws some seeding risk in there. Pittsburgh ending up as a two seed in North Carolina's bracket would probably crush its value. But, the Big East winner is also probably a 1 seed who would not have to face North Carolina until the championship game. Georgetown, Pittsburgh and UConn look like the most likely candidates right now. If one of GT/Pitt wins the Big East and the other gets a reasonably high seed, betting both teams now has a good bit of value based on probability matrices from prior tournaments. Unfortunately, the BE is a little crowded. Hopefully North Carolina keeps up mythic status and continues to hover around 40%+, presenting some good value when conference leaders become more clear.
Thursday, December 18, 2008
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
Record Update 12/17
Rec / Win% / eWin%: 12-3-1 / 80.0% / 55.5%
Again, eWin% is the expected winning percentage of my lines assuming Pinny close is efficient. Running hot to start, but also beating close.
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
Monday, December 15, 2008
I started adding in components of last year's model now that we have a decent amount of current year data. It's still Kenpom motored by efficiency stats, but it adjusts for a lot of issues he doesn't: HFA differences, luck in player performance, the effects of team composition on predicted tempo, etc. Tracking starts today. Lines are typically taken at Bookmaker or The Greek.
Syracuse o134.5
UC Riverside u116
USC u130.5
I will also be tracking expected win% for the year, benchmarked by Pinny close. I'm doing some unit sizing, but everything here will be 1u for ease of record keeping. I'll be using push frequencies (by spread/total range of course) from my database, smoothed with a regression.
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