5/1

OAK -102 2.6u

cant bet open today, will be back later

Christ I run like ass when I murder close. Practically every big win so far would be a win at -1.5 lines, and I'm hugely negative in one run games. NYN game is extra annoying: FLO had like 3 clutch hits, NYN has like 4-5 rocket grounders with diving stops to prevent 4-5 runs. 

Some pretty horrid managerial decisions today so far too: NYN pinch hits a good fastball hitter (with bases loaded two out in 9th) against a fastball pitcher. He replaces the guy with an absolutely atrocious hitter because that one has more "speed" or something. /life. BAL was pretty bad too. Had a chance to come back down down 1 run in 8th with a 3-1 count, 1 out, Markakis on 1st... and the manager sends Markakis to get gunned at 2nd on a hit-and-run. Markakis is not fast. The hitter at the plate whiffs a lot. Grr.

There's got to be a site that attempts to quantify managerial decision making (like bunts way too much, pinch hits the worst players, loves hit and runs with strikeout artists, brings in his worst relievers with game close), because I really need to incorporate that.

also: had bet on bos... now no youk/drew, arb out.

adds:

NYN -175 / 1.6u (no Uggla, Ramirez for FLO)

BOS -127 / 1.7u (arbed out - lineup changes)

I can't figure out the Yankees this year. The Hughes play only finished 4c better than mid-market. Tomorrows BAL and TBA lines are crushing, but my NYA line sucks. My BOS bet with Masterson v Pettitte moved heavily towards NYA when I had huge value on Boston. I suppose the answers are probably Hughes and Masterson are projected optimistically, and this absolutely atrociously projected Detroit rookie tomorrow is supposed to be decent. It really seems like most plays lately are coming because of a young pitcher, where PECOTA has to fill in for lack of history. Either way, it's a fairly safe bet I'll be on Masterson and Hughes' next open - but I really can't guage the market well enough to overbet for arbs.

4/29 (all BJ)

BAL -115 / 2.1u (also took -120 on BM, arbed half)

NYA -140 / 5.1u (1.1 open, added 4u at -140 on MB on gameday (full faith leap with Pecota))

TBA -115 / 1.2u (1u now, arbed .2u for lineup construction)

4/28

NYA +104 / .8u (BM)

Meh, arbing at -147 and taking a loss on CHN. The lineups are going to be as disadvantageous as possible. Course both arbs yesterday won...

Tomorrow's plays shortly.

4/27

CHN +130 / .7u (more if Ramirez or Lee aren't still out)

I'll try to put up some general mlb luck stuff tomorrow. Pythag records are pretty easy to find, but there's a lot of luck behind the actual runs scored too.

add ons:

-no positive lineup changes

-Arbing out of LAA at SEA +140. I'd bet small on SEA right now if I had to bet again. LAA lineup is gutted, got 22c of positive movement (took LAA -118 at open), so taking the money and running imo.

-Also arbing out of COL +121 at LAN +104. The three starters caused that movement, but Helton's also out for COL, and again I'd bet LAN at a very small edge if I had to. Taking the 25c arb and running again imo.

-SDN had big equity but Peavy is just pitching like crap - the command isn't there to start the season. Walk rate up, watched him struggle pretty badly a few times in the last starts to grove a strike in an automatic take situation... Probably staying off his next start - same with CC. IIRC Peavy had some small issue in spring training, can't remember what it was.

-Groan and now Yankees too. Wrong way on Yankees movement late, market knows something I don't I guess - which is extra strange considering Berroa is replacing Damon and Gardner batting leadoff.

I should probably give up this handicapping thing and just start a Lehman Brothers-esque humongous leveraging arb-log (ie: 13 units on COL last night, arb it all out before first pitch). Of course, that'll probably be when I start running good (or even at expectation) with all that equity. The occasional internet or matchbook server outages before games might make me suicidal though.

COL +121 / .6u

Manny, Furcal, Blake sitting tomorrow.

Fun with Brewers

Christ, MIL blows 2 run lead in the 8th. Serves me right I guess.

Hart lead off the 9th with a double that was like 5 feet short of a dinger, but I'm sure they'll find a way to not score even with Braun/Fielder coming up, run expectancy matrix be damned.

Update: Fielder 2R HR! Ship the jinx!

Update part 2: Shit, there's still the bottom of the 9th... with Berkman/Lee.

Update part 3: Fuck. You. Brewers.

Update part 4: Hope?

Update part 5: lol MIL takes 1 run lead in 11th, but can't score any more with bases loaded and 0 out. That's gotta be a precursor to disaster.

Update part 6: Mike DeFelice for President.

CLE -117 / .4u

SDN -120 / 1.1u <- oops, already posted in opener

OAK +107 / .6u

BOS -135 / .8u

4/26

BOS -132 / 2.5u

SDN -165 / 1.6u

CLE -116 / 1.5u

LAA -118 / .6u

How do you avoid Brewers bullpen blowups?

...bet on starting pitchers who throw complete games.

Still getting some decent movement off open, eROI stabilizing at 4.7%, but giant overbetting arbing plays are getting real rare. I balked on KCA (Greinke) because I didn't have multiple projection sources for that Detroit rookie, whoops. Trust in PECOTA I guess.

4/25

ARI -115 / 1u

MIL +122 / .7u (god help me)

SDN -120 / 1.1u

TBA +100 .8u

4/24

MIL -115 / 1.1u (BM), prob won't move much

Well, somehow Zito, Looper, and Pineiro combined for 21 innings of 2 run ball, BJ Ryan blew a 3 run save, and I ended up positive on the day. The dramatic moves off open are starting to slow down quite a bit. Today is a good example - Billingsley finally opened in fair territory. I might still bet that game, but it didn't have 30c off open like usual. So, probably less betting huge cent spreads at open, and more gameday betting on matchbook, bj and dimes.

TOR -137 / 2.7u

Jones in for Hamilton for TEX, line moving wrong way.

TBA -104 / 2.6u

DET +102 / 2.1u

nothing big to arb later for openers

4/23

TOR +106 / .8u

4/22 adds

Not counted as openers - don't expect to beat close much. Previously, I was sort of shutgun modeling - spitting out lines using many different projections and two different run estimators, then betting when it all agreed on a play. I'm removing outliers now, and putting more faith in PECOTA/Chone, the better projection systems. It's going to cause quite a few more plays early on, but I still have the market data to get a good sense for whether to take something at open which may move quite a bit, or wait and concede I won't beat close by much.

PHI -125 / 1.1u

NYN -102 / 2.4u

Sweet, 27% below expectation in ROI

Baseball is so ****ing frustrating. Demolish close and get raped. 4.7% eROI on baseball moneylines is ridiculous value territory, and I'm getting owned.

On the three large plays, I get spotted 3 runs, 2 runs, and 1 run in the top of the first inning, and I'm going to lose each one. SFN and TBA are still going, but I'm not holding my breath. Anyway, go look at a win expectancy chart, multiply those together, then enter some raffles with those odds, because you'll have a decent shot at winning a big screen TV if you can keep this up. And each loss has a nice little WTF ARE U SERIOUS element to it.

LAN: Down 3 in 9th, two on no out and Manny hits a ball 6 feet short of the fence.

SFN: Edgar Renteria of all people hitting grannies off JAKE PEAVY.

TBA: Worst of all. SEA got the lead with a three run inning by hitting two rbi triples that are both routine deep fly balls and easily get caught by a guy at normal depth, but they've got Kapler playing little league distance in center for some insane reason. Nice little 375 foot out in the 8th that would have tied the game if it had an extra foot, too.

Anyway, the days of a few plays are over. I'm being too cautious this early, and variance is just going to own my ass with a couple plays per day. Especially when things get ultra sharp in mid-season. A lot of the plays are probably just going to be matchbook lines early the day of the game. I'll still bet some games the day before if I expect movement so I can gobble up some useless useless equity.

Update: And Arizona blows a 3 run lead in the 6th, giving up 4 runs. Yeah. FML.

4/22
SDN -110 .5u

Nothing big, maybe a few more later.

Also, fyi, my unit size on TBA is probably too big given that it hasn't moved. Probably arbing some of it for a very small loss, but LAN and SDN have huge equity - not arbing those plays.

Forgot to add:

SDN -105 / 1.8u

4/21
Some small over-betting on some of the larger units to leave buffer room to arb for lineup surprises, but these aren't 2x Kelly arbing attempts.

LAN -130 / 2.8u
ARI -115 / .8u
TBA +100 / 1.9u, -105 / .8u
TEX +200 / .2u

Groan @ bullpens today, lights out for TOR and MIN against OAK and LAA, not so much for CLE against NYA. TEX went right, but smallest to-win of course. I might start betting MIL, WAS, and a few other teams on 5-inning lines. Bullpens are difficult, since it takes a long long time for relievers to hit sample sizes that give me statistical justification to question projections.

Nothing huge tomorrow. Probably wait for lineups.

Yeah, not sure why I bother with small plays early, I'd probably get a better price waiting until gametime. Checking lineups now, which might cause me to make a few more plays or arb out of current ones.

ATL -107 .2u
BAL +180 .1u
Arb OAK play for loss down to .4u (No Nomar + Cust + lefty = useless)

Big equity today, and finally back in positive territory. I sat in the first row behind the Baltimore dugout at Fenway, so I'd like to think my heckling of Eaton added an extra cent or two of equity :). Anyway, always nice when you effectively get paid to go to the game.

Also, rooting for the Red Sox in person is painful. I feel pretty dirty right now.

I can't remember if this was the situation last year, but generally the big equity from line moves are coming from openers underestimating great pitchers and overestimating horrible pitchers early on. Eaton shouldn't have a job, and Billingsly is superstar territory. It's almost like with the exception of accepted superstars (Lincecum, Santana, etc), openers are assuming a floor and ceiling just before the extremes for most all other pitchers.

Posting from Fenway

YOUUUUUUUK

4/19

LAA +130 / .6u

OAK +110 / .7u

CLE +220 / .3u

TEX -115 / .3u

Not terribly confident these all beat close, so no arb attempt today.

There a couple medium plays tomorrow - waiting on Pinny and BJ.

Broxton pitching 1.2 innings tonight, sigh. He'll probably be unavailable tomorrow. That's worth several cents, so I'd arb now at 152-155 if you got -150 and took more than you want. It also reduces the Kelly stake to less than half the posted amount.

Christ, blown late inning leads on every play today, including a 5 run lead in the 8th. Standard.

Also, I don't think I can bet MIL or WAS games anymore, half-seriously. They're the team versions of Javier Vazquez. They're composed of a larger than normal collection of players who don't come close to their projected numbers. So, I'm not sure how to value them. MIL beat close slightly, only probably because lots of people think Hernandez sucks. WAS didn't beat close. Anyway, that reasoning is the rational part.

The less rational part is that they also lose games in tilty ways, which makes subsequent shitty bets more likely. Today was a pretty good example. WAS blows a save by a lofty HR that clears the fence by a couple feet, then get behind in the 10th on a rinky-dink roller between 3rd and short, then Dukes crushes a ball (leading off down 3-2 in the 10th) about 6 feet too low to be a HR, and the next few guys proceed to watch balls down the middle like a bunch of tourists. Dukes never gets further than 2nd. And of course the MIL bullpen blew their game, complete with an ending that involved Louis Castillo luckboxing a game winning ground ball slapper with 2 outs that was too slow to ever throw him out on.

So yeah, probably bye MIL and WAS for now, I don't trust the projections of a solid handful of starting position players and relievers, and sweating your games takes years off my life.

4/18
Again, arbing half on big units unless there are lineup surprises. Arb gains/losses in ROI based on closing matchbook price.

LAN -150 / 4.4u (arb)

BOS -207 / 3.2u (no arb)

TEX -113 / .2u

Groan - Guerrero out indefinitely. Arbing the LAA play down to .2u using Matchbook.

4/17
LAA +110 / .2u
MIL +125 / .5u
WAS +115 / .3u

If it weren't for the Giants, this would be ugly so far. I can't really hope to keep up the 4% eROI too (4% is roughly beating Pinny vig-free line by 10-15c every game), so it'd be nice to run good while I still have the confidence to bet large edges.

CLE +180 is the only thing I'd bet now - but I read somewhere that Lee's fastball is off and he's using it less, so I don't have a ton of confidence in the projections for him.

Nothing yet for tomorrow. Also, I'll break ROI into openers and game-time bets. I'm obviously not going to beat close betting 30 mins before gametime, so I won't bother with eROI for gametime bets.

Christ, already running bad. Simon (Bal SP, one of the worst in the league) gets injured in the 2nd inning, so Texas gets shutdown by a much better bullpen. Now Harden is pitching like Zito and Marquis is... good now? Also, if I make mention of planning to arb a large unit size (~3+), generally I'm overbetting 2x and arbing half, so about half the posted play is the Kelly stake.

Betting on posted lineups now. This part is pure capping I guess, but I've never thought lines adjusted to lineup changes enough (Giambi/Nomar both out for A's).

ARI -106 / .6u (MB)
BOS -104 / 2.4u (MB - sbr lag)

Again, prob arbing some of this:

4/15
All Greek
CHN -200 / 3.1u
LAN -140 / 1.6u
LAA +100 / 1.6u

adding later:
CLE -101 / .3u
HOU +112 / .2u
TOR +126 / .2u

Whoops, overthought the Zona game, -131/+123 now. All my maybes have a little equity, might start making 3/4 plays per day early on (this will end by June probably), but still very top heavy on the one or two games I think are way off, if they keep presenting themselves.

TEX -125 (Greek early) and -128 (BJ now) / 3.5u (overbet counting on movement, may arb most)
MIL -130 / .5u

On the fence about Ari +141. Numbers say yes, but Scherzer just came off DL, was apparently wild in his minor league start, and Carpenter's forecasted numbers are conservative if he's the Messiah again...

Also, the Giants are this year's anti-Tampa Bay, imo. That lineup is still total trash, and I think an improvement has been built into the openers thus far.

Groan Yankees, 8th inning two out no on, 1 out from from Mariano and poof.

LAN -150 / 2.9u

4/12

NYA -133 / .7u

NYN -119 / .3u

To give a better sense of bet scaling: I'm betting half-kelly, 1u = 1% of BR, so 2u+ plays will be fairly rare, and fractional unit plays common. Double/triple my posted units and you're probably closer to most cappers who probably have 1u = .5% of BR or less. While necessary for scaling, units are a semi-useless way of evaluating a record, so I'll keep results in ROI terms mostly.

Model done

Model complete, handedness/defense/park factors finished. PHI and KCA would not have been a bet :(. Real Kelly units, bet sizing, eROI tracking starts now:

4/11
SDN -142 / 1.4u

Added note: there usually won't be more than a couple plays per day. MLB is much more efficient than CBB and I think too many people employ a shotgun approach. It's hard to compare, since hardly anyone else tracks eROI, which is a much more important indicator in well understood major sports with high limits.

Still on course to be done on Friday, have some cleanup work on handedness to complete. Floating a few small anyway: WAS +190, SDN +118, KCA +162, PHI -132

Back

Well the final four could not have gone any shittier for futures. I hedged out a few units on a couple teams, but we got left with UNC and Michigan St. in the final - two teams whose futures' prices were nearly constantly horrible. I had damn near my entire bankroll during the FF trying to get enough UNC ML to bleed tiny amounts of equity out of remaining futures.

MLB betting will begin on Friday, I need to load a whole bunch of roster updates and start quadruple checking the calculations. I found the MLB betting log from last year, and calculated an ROI and eROI. 3.2% was the eROI, actual ROI was 7.6%, and most of it came during the beginning and end of the year. It should be noted that performance was generally against Greek openers, not WA game day lines. I moved the Greek openers myself 5c sometimes a few minutes after open, so it may be hard to get some lines immediately, but they rebounded back at some point frequently. Also, matchbook is indispensable for baseball. Nearly every bet will be Greek or MB, with some BJ/5Dimes/BM once I get better funded at those books.

Since I actually enjoy baseball, and it's a lot easier to parse information than basketball, I'll probably be doing some general semi-betting related SABR type posts to make this more than a bet-logging blog.

WNBA starts mid-May.

On vacation on remote island, probably no more cbb updates. Wnba/MLB stuff starting next week. I've never bet wnba, MLB roi was around 7-8 % over the course of the season, but higher to start. MLB record tracking will include bet sizing, since almost all bets are on the moneyline. I'll keep an eROI versus close as well.