I'll try to put up some general mlb luck stuff tomorrow. Pythag records are pretty easy to find, but there's a lot of luck behind the actual runs scored too.

add ons:

-no positive lineup changes

-Arbing out of LAA at SEA +140. I'd bet small on SEA right now if I had to bet again. LAA lineup is gutted, got 22c of positive movement (took LAA -118 at open), so taking the money and running imo.

-Also arbing out of COL +121 at LAN +104. The three starters caused that movement, but Helton's also out for COL, and again I'd bet LAN at a very small edge if I had to. Taking the 25c arb and running again imo.

-SDN had big equity but Peavy is just pitching like crap - the command isn't there to start the season. Walk rate up, watched him struggle pretty badly a few times in the last starts to grove a strike in an automatic take situation... Probably staying off his next start - same with CC. IIRC Peavy had some small issue in spring training, can't remember what it was.

-Groan and now Yankees too. Wrong way on Yankees movement late, market knows something I don't I guess - which is extra strange considering Berroa is replacing Damon and Gardner batting leadoff.

I should probably give up this handicapping thing and just start a Lehman Brothers-esque humongous leveraging arb-log (ie: 13 units on COL last night, arb it all out before first pitch). Of course, that'll probably be when I start running good (or even at expectation) with all that equity. The occasional internet or matchbook server outages before games might make me suicidal though.