CHN -140 / 1.1u

Plz to not be getting shutdown by Eric Milton for 5 innings

update:

great getting clutch singled to death all weekend (check SLN push), then 5 straight singles for LAN to start game.

eff baseball and eff babip. sigh. ugh. etc.

SLN -130 / 1.7u

BAL +103 / .4u (game)

TBA -150 / .5u (game)

have them fair for 5inning lines, shrug

I heart the Milwaukee bullpen.

weird fact, MIL 2nd in NL bullpen ERA

http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/sortable_team_stats.jsp?c_id=mlb&baseballScope=NL&statType=2&sitSplit=grp&timeSubFrame=2009&groupByTeam=true&Submit=Submit&timeFrame=1

Might also be time for me to give up Mariners games for my own sanity. Back to streaking their slappy singles in long chains whenever I don't need it.

MIL lineup perfect, CIN missing Phillips. I'm confused. Sigh, arb 2/3+ for 3c loss on MIL, 14c gain on LAA.

SFN -115 / .5u

ATL -120 / .5u

all following are game bets today, low on BJ funds and MB 5in market not always good enough.

Great, would have been a push on 5 inning. Just take the opposite (game/5inn) of whatever I do.

PHI -162 / 1.2u

CLE -113 / .7u

Hmm wonder what's going on with the MIL line. It was arbable for a good profit last night, then swang violently back this morning, so I might have to take a small loss on it. Hope I didn't get lineup screwed (like manager said Braun + Hart get the day off or w/e).

LAN +101 / .3u (FOR GAME)

Can't get a good 5 inning price -> rare deviation from 5 innings for general badassery of LAN bullpen.

add to 5/29

LAA -161 / 3.4u (more arbz)

5/29

MIL +100 / 3.1u (full game)

Arb attempt obv, still fading the cueto HR/FB, BABIP luckfest

Sonnanstine now on my DO NOT WANT list headed up by Andrew Miller. Apparently a 6 spot wasn't enough for 5 innings, err, 3 innings.

SDN -158 / .8u (reduced, lineup mismatch in model)

TBA +102 / .5u

TEX +125 / .3u

lol... since 5 innings only plays there have been two losers and a push that are winners in full game (if Sea holds on). Oh well, the Papelbon blown save more than makes up for it.

I may stick to full game wagers for some of the uber pitchers that go 7-8 routinely (like Greinke, Lincecum yesterday), and live with bullpen coinflipping for the 8th/9th. For scrub on scrub, 5 innings is about perfect.

In other news, Seattle is quickly becoming the Brewers of this year for me. If I bet against them, they're the most clutch/gritty/etc slap hitters with an insane BABIP. When on them, their RISP is horrid and they can't score runners from third with less than 2 out. Oh Mariners, why must you be so perfectly erratic with your slapiness.

SEA -120 / .6u

ARI -160 / .7u (AG out)

SFN - 166 / .8u

CHN -146 .7u

KCA -153 .8u

KCA +127 / .5u

OAK -137 / .3u

HOU +106 / .3u

ATL -132 / .6u

Arb CLE -105 / 1.4u for game at +126 (21c profit)

Arb FLO -105 / .9u for game at -106 (11c loss) <- cantu out, Gload in, TB lineup perfect

No 5 inning bet on CLE (fair line)

FLO +100 / .3u (again, all bets are now 5 inning if not openers)

MB 5 inning volume actually isn't that bad on some of these games for fractional units.

LAN -119 / .5u (no Morales, Napoli)

lol... Paplebon just gave up a 2 run HR to a scrub in the 9th to go down 3-2. Suck it full game bets.

The several cents worse because I can't use MB is totally worth the save in sweating relief meltdowns.

Ship the tilt embracing of full kelly. BOS wins 2-1 through 5. Phillies game marked the end of full game bets at gametime, every line forward that isn't an opener will be 5 inning lines. BOS line was BJ, they'll usually have the best lines. Relievers typically don't hit reliable sample sizes mid year, so it feels like I'm just coin flipping past the 6th inning, especially since reliver use and leverage analysis is very time intensive and I can't get to all of it.

I'll likely also start completely arbing a lot of the openers regardless of lineup, and won't be betting any openers I don't think are going to move 10c for an arb. I'll probably make a corresponding 5 inning bet around gametime the next day if lineups dictate.

Hilarious how bad I run at this shit. Blown multi-run saves everywhere while I can't buy a run past the 6th inning.

I'm probably done if this doesn't hit, baseball is just ridiculous with variance:

BOS -201 / 6.4u (full Kelly, Mets subbed in three shitty hitters, Red Sox lineup perfect, Pelfrey velocity down and not K'ing guys, Beckett's command much better last two games + using FB more)

update: 5 inning BJ line, should be obvious since -201 is nowhere on full game SBR and MB was -185 for game at the time.

PHI +161 / 1.1u

HOU +104 / 1.3u (Kinsler/Young out)

5/24

CLE -105 / 1.4u

FLO -105 / .9u

Nothing tomorrow at first glance. Of course todays loss so far was already annoying. COL misthrow in 8th gives Det an extra run, then they fall 1 run short in their 9th inning rally.

Now LAN (tied 1-1) has one run on like 15 baserunners through 7, I think about 5 huge 3rb base 0 or 1 out fails, two diving/wall smashing catches to save runs, and Torre just put in their worst reliever and walk-a-saurus lefty to pitch to the top of the order - which is righty loaded. Don't know why I bother. Anyway, just win by 4 or 5 on a bunch of dingers one time other team.

wnba yet? plz? Good/lucky unit sizing the only thing keeping ROI in the black right now (negative W-L despite focusing on small-to-medium favorite home teams).

WTF lineups. Molina out for LaRue. Ryan and Stavinoha in also... making -125 exactly fair. Royals lineup is perfect for them. Thanks a ton LaRussa, thanks so much.

Arbing down that whole SLN play for a 3c loss as well. Negating arb profits from SEA yesterday. Ugh this is irritating.

Can't wait to see Dodgers lineup. Kemp and Ethier probably sitting for a couple AAA guys.

COL +137 / .5u

Arbing down SEA... 6c of equity off MB (-116 right now). SEA has probably the worst lineup possible, and I feel like I'm being tarped with regard to Bedard's hamstring injury or something. This should be -130 right now with 100% Bedard, and my stats reconcile with cose for both SP's recent starts, so I dunno.

5/22

SLN -125 / 3.6u

Over-bet, prob arbing. I think this is WTFBBQ off, but then again the SEA -110 hasn't moved much despite losing Abreu for a couple days on a play yesterday, so what do I know.

IIRC, interleague play is sort of like the beginning of the year part-deux in terms of line moves, so there might be a few more gigantic arbing attempts.

Adding:

LAN - 125 / 1.2u (might arb, not sure about Abreu tomorrow, or what rotated DH won't get to play)

5/21

SEA -110 / 1.8u

another wtf line, imo, slight overbet - might arb

watch it close at -105 now

added: BOS -165 / .8u

LOL this is really getting comical, I can't lose a bet without shenanigans. Up on the day since PHI won - in totally standard fashion. CLE and TBA lost, again in hilarious bad beat fashion. TBA 2B boots a ball in the 11th with two out, which allows Holliday to come up and hit a 3 run jack. Then Kerry Wood gives up 4 runs to the Royals in the 9th with 1 out and none on. Just bizarre how I lose games. Usually the pen too. I swear, I'm actually reverting to 5 inning bets on anything that isn't loltastic value with open (since line will correct before 5 inning lines get posted). I don't model bullpen usage so I even have justification for it!

Ah Votto out - price is fair right now, no arbing.

Nothing big for Wednesday

PHI +100 is <3 <3 <3, but I think it may have boomeranged too far the other direction (-134 on MB). If you're into that sort of thing, arbing out here is probably going to be a better price than at close, unless I don't know something about the lineups today.

rapid course correction imo, 3 in losses in a row, and FLO closing crush/1-0 lead is going to get rained out.

.4u more on LAA at -113 (Beltre/Cedeno swap)

Beat me senseless if I ever bet WAS anything other than 5 innings again.

5/19

PHI +100 / 1.3u

Phils line is perplexing. Cueto runs like God with BABIP and this line, given normal lineups, says Cueto = ~Hamels. Well, I get a no bet if I plugged in Hamels vs. Hamels anyway. Waiting on BJ for possible others.

Update: had to bet rest through iphone on Greek. Here's the other small adds, they all moved slightly.

CLE -135 .3u

WAS -133 .3u - arbing out, might bet 5 inning

TBA - 180 .4u

Back to normalcy. Winning streak stopped with a couple one run losses: one despite my side throwing a 2 hitter, and the other because of a bottom of the 9th error. Small units, so w/e, but I'm pretty damn awesome at picking the weird losers rather than the standard 3 run loss shellackings. Kinda wish I'd get the latter, less sweating. Here's to losing by several runs and being out of it in the 6th inning tomorrow.

Back from my trip, so opener betting starts again tomorrow, assuming there's anything to bet.

5/19

WAS -110 / .3u

FLO +124 / .3u

LAA -102 / .2u

Bos -132 .4u

sln .3u / -1

Micro plays for 5/16:

MIL -105 / .5u

that's all

Obv Chris Young on the road is an odds don't matter system.

Nothing tomorrow, won't be around for open the next two days, but I'm going to start making some micro bets before limits go up overnight. Sitting on your thumbs waiting for big plays is boring, and I'm probably passing up value, though I haven't kept track of movements vs. close with "leans" or whatever you want to call marginal model value.

I Run Like God

7 game win streak assuming Oakland doesn't blow a 9 run lead in 2 innings to the Royals. I've already marked it a W, which might be asking for an epic bad beat here. Anyway, nice reversal of fortunes this season. Units updated/corrected to reflect all the early season arbing crap, which is basically over since beating close isn't a given anymore on most of the plays.

Groan. Chris Young on the road opened fairly (imo). So much for that angle.

Nothing tomorrow.

Meh Pinny out, and not giving a better price than Greek/BM.

5/12

OAK -125 / 1u

One smallish play for 5/12, waiting on BJ for it. It'll be up when BJ opens. Not expecting it to beat close much, hopefuly 5-10c.

Nothing tomorrow - only four games.

No big openers tomorrow, maybe something small when BJ rolls out

Ok NOW I'm using up some of that late game karma, 6 in a row. Crushed close, so I don't feel so bad. The edges are getting smaller by the day - I'm forgoeing most of the micro plays, but I might be forced into taking a few per day pretty soon, since practically every game not involving a rookie pitcher is opening at fair value.

Nothing for tomorrow, but Saturday is a big day for random manager-granted days off, so maybe a few gametime bets.

Yay run good, 5 in a row, about 6% ROI with all bets now. So far, I haven't really used up any WTF-are-you-kidding-me game-ending suckout karma from some heartbreakers earlier, so hopefully there's more to come.

Still generally beating close on openers, but it's more like 10c instead of 20-30c now. Probably approaching the point where there's not much sense to bet large spread openers without a newbie pitching (like today's LAA game, and tomorrow's MIL game). And... that's going to coincide with WNBA pretty nicely. Go beaverball.

The instant value of Manny apparently:

Kind of interesting to see the importance (approx) of a player over his replacement. IMO this should have dropped 19c, not 13c, and it's dropped more since but that's likely not due to anything Manny related. A lot of my gametime bets are reactions to lineup changes that I don't think have moved the line enough - perhaps my variation between player valuation is wider than most, but I can't really think of a reason why right now. No real point to the post, just rambling.

5/8

MIL -110 / 1.9u

5/7

LAA -154 / 1.2u <-corrected, wrong catchers

just changed to -160, adjust Kelly by win probablity accordingly

Yay on finally (Jays game) luckboxing huge inning down a few runs, although that was made necessary by various errors/semi-errors that accounted for half CLE's runs. Mixed emotions.

Go Timmy.

In positive unit territory again, plz to be staying here.

5/6

Took SLN -130 on Greek, .6u, doubt it moves much, just won't be around tomorrow. Still there on pinny if you have it.

SFN -111 / 1.9u

Cubs lineup is a total joke today

No Soriano, Bradley, Soto

Groan, hey Cleveland sit a starter or two. At least don't put up the best possible lineup. TOR is sitting regular catcher for a practical pitcher-equivalent at the plate, which is brutal.

Arbed down (1c loss) to .9u

5/5

TOR -110 / 1.8u (go Cecil)

Chris Young on the Road - My First Stand

Note: That stuff you can get from fangraphs. How to get detailed pitchfx data: http://fastballs.wordpress.com/2007/08/23/how-to-build-a-pitch-database/

Well, here's yesterday's bet in partial data form. Something happened to Chris Young last year besides getting horrifically slammed in the face with a ball. Fastball velocity is down, and it's persisting. It also has less horizontal movement. Probably as a fairly direct consequence, his line drive percentage jumped to 24.9%, which likely also involved a little bit of bad luck. BABIP is used to eliminate luck using GD/FB/LD rates, but luck still exists in the breakdown of those rate stats themselves. Anyway, the drop from 90 to 87/86 is significant, very significant. He ran ridiculously hot last year to end the season with respectable stats (check the eBABIP). He is also an extreme fly ball pitcher in San Diego - AND ran very hot with HRs there.

If I had to guess, the marked increase in the use of his changeup (20% this year) is probably directly related to the speed issues with his fastball. Obviously, a good change improves your fastball, but this change - whatever he's done different - has no horizontal movement, it's gone. It's also only 8 mph slower than his fastball, and the speed gap between a change and a fastball is very important. Obviously the guy still has a unique release point, being 6'10 and throwing over the top, so he's not Barry Zito - but I'm also of the opinion that nearly all the weighted-means and comparable projections are optimistic, and expect more or less last year's performance, which was lucky to be as average as it was. Game lines (like last night), imo, are reflecting the common projections.

Of course Young pitched decent last night, but avoided a couple high run expectation situations. Anyway, this might be slightly psychotic, but I'm going to betting against the market close with Chris Young on the road for the near future. Maybe at home too, but he's perfected the deep fly ball out there, so I'm a little wary that hitters aren't crushing 440 foot bombs too often, and hit a lot of HRs via the 340 foot variety. I'm a huge believer in market equity, but I think it's possible to pick your spots from time to time, especially early in the year, so long as you aren't betting half the games per day at close. MLB's more efficient than CBB, but see my post regarding early year equity/efficient close on that subject.

So obv Loretta can't pull a Lopez. Now Mota is in the game. I'm going to lose with 95% confidence.

OR NOT. FINALLY.

It's weird to say, but I can't wait for the WNBA in June. Betting women feels like coin flipping, but baseball is way more tilty.

I run like ass

Bottom 6th, 1-1 game.

- A. Ethier singled to right

- J. Loney doubled to left, A. Ethier to third

- R. Martin grounded out to shortstop

- M. Kemp lined into double play shortstop to third, A. Ethier out at third

SD is retardedly playing all infielders in with a power hitter up and 0/1 out. Balls basically have be hit right at them, or they're hits, and that scores two runners. And of course Kemp's ball is only caught because the dude is right on the grass and the ball is hit directly at his shoes. Amazing. Another horrible coaching move, but this time by the other team, ironically owns me through luckboxing.

I think the only appropriate way for this game to be resolved is probably david eckstein grounding out to third, but two throwing errors allow him to make it all the way around to home. And probably a Manny 403 foot out to dead center to end it.

I'm getting the ominous feeling LAN +600 is about fair right now, tie game, superior lineup, and home field be damned.

LAN -160 / 3.1u

Should be back to betting openers tomorrow, been busy. There hasn't really been much anyway, arbing days are probably over and I ran like ass during it. Lame. I'm starting to alter projections based on YTD rate stats, slightly, so probably more plays per day as I take an opinion on players projection paths (using pitch fx for pitchers to identify material changes in velocity and movement).

Just got home - see SEA and OAK tied in bottom of 9th (OAK blew 5 run lead obv), 1st and 3rd, two out, Branyan up...

And Oakland is walking him. FFS, a HR = a single here, you lose if either happens. Lopez is about .030 better against righties anyway. And then combine higher odds of hit + odds of walk to Lopez (on deck) and we're >>>>>>>> odds of Branyan hit. DO NOT WALK THE BASES LOADED. Hell you already have a force play at 2nd. This is madness. I bet it ends horribly.

Mid at-bat update: Lopez has swung at about 5 balls in a row on 2-2. Wow.

Final update: I may not run well, but I predict pretty good. I'm getting a little annoyed losing games in large part because of fat overpaid 50 year olds, rather than the actual players and stuff.