NC St. -4.5

Greek is better at this

Wyoming o136

thats all

Michigan o134.5 half

probably all unless greek releases everything again

wtf massive totals release

BC o140
Norfolk o137.5 (half)

eff got to go

also, full unit spreads bets now, have enough data to at least hit 52.4%+ on ewin there I think

Wright St. u127

thats all

osu -5
luousville u144.5 half

TCU -4
Boise St. -1.5
RI pk

got to totals a little late, not seeing anything obvious

en fuego

OSU -6

Xavier u151.5 (half)
FSU u140 (half)

books seem more willing to release totals when there aren't 65,987,190.4 games to cap

asu u141

thats it, sporadic updating over holliday

Sacred Heart +17.5

First middle evar

almost

Might hedge out of a couple of these

LSU +8
Northern Arizona +7

Virginia +3.5
Illinois -13.5
Wisky pk <- half a half

Cincy o133.5 (smallish)
Kentucky u145.5 (smallish)
Texas o133.5

Middling out Illinois at +15.5 -105

Ew, line crushaments not helping much today so far

Shipzilla <3 the .300 FG%.

Should have kept whacking at it down to 142 ldo.

I'll get the eWin% crap up today if I get bored enough. I make occasional 2H bets but they aren't really followable, only showing game lines. Spreads eWin% will suck, it's going to be a couple weeks before I expect to regularly beat moves there.

It's going to get harder to get my line on openers bets, a lot of these lines are screaming up/down and I have a few people that need to smash it first. I'll post if the live line still has any value when posting in case of hudge moves.

-----

eWin% stuff up

Vandy u149 (now 146, still good, took more)

SC o140.5 ship line move before hitaments

nothing on the others

Sides:
Nevada -2
Temple -4
Buff +4

Totals:
Was informed BP released totals yesterday without BM. Hopefully more volume there. Spreads are half units, totals are typically max bets.

Christ, 0 totals all day? This is bad.

Siena 2H dirtay +4 hedge

Toledo u142

Nova u143 - effing meetings made me miss open #

<3<3<3 taking a 3 to win instead of a 2 to tie Nova

Nothing else on the other sub-handful of totals

Sure would be nice to run better than 50/50 when I wafflecrush lines, and run better than 0/100 when I get wafflecrushed. :(

Also, last season's latter half system where you bet the oppo side of the 2H line that helps my game bet is continuing to crush. Tempted to try it on the Nevada 2H over since I nearly bet that game under imo.

Yeah sure why not, o76 2H. Lox imo.

Butler u128
Texas o138

Not running too hot on the 6 point move crushes :P

UIC +1

GT u129
ISU +100
Iowa o124.5 ty bm

Scratch NW tomorrow, munching some vig

lol just saw UCLA went to to 2OT and over still lost. Nice 5-29 3pt, .471 FT shooting from white dude dead eye shooters. Think I'm staying away from UCLA for a bit, ie this year.

Sweet, my 2H Montezuma's revenge didn't break over the offseason. At least totals are back imo. Please to not go away.

UCLA o140
SDSU u133
Virginia o124
Auburn o130.5

Groan. TY to comment below informing me totals releases will become a rarity in all liklihood. I'll be back in a couple weeks I guess, whenever I have enough data to feel comfortable doing anything with spreads other than chasing steam. I'll probably do a lot more sizing with spreads (no more flat betting tracking) given having half my plays and a high 50's winrate removed.

Boooo

wtf one total releases for like 30 games? Only on Montana for fixz. Back tomorrow, if books bother to actually list totals.

Ship the 5 minutes of free time coinciding with some totals rollout and free wireless internet in hotel. Think I need a few games of game data for spreads, I'm wiffing on movement with bets and near bets. Totals are a little easier since tempos don't fluctuate too wildly year to year under the same coach. Less reliance on blind insight into roster changes.

So. Miss u143.5
UCR u132.5

Stanford -1

Hasn't moved. Hardly anything has moved. Not sure how useful I'll be when lines start flying 5 mins after open, since I generally won't be insta-posting.

Flying to wedding this weekend. Wouldn't expect much of anything. Probably for the best since at the very least I'll know who's getting minutes on each team.

Only one bet for now, some people need more of it, will post later.

OSU u146.5
NC St. u136.5

Christ, that's a lot of free throws. Check ref's phone records imo. I'll post a list of Friday bets sometime later tomorrow, it won't be right at open, but movement seems slow to start off so far.

Cal u141.5

A little weary of Detroit's transfers, who appear to be better offensively, but it's still 7/8 off last season.

Season starts tomorrow <3

Fun with KenPom

So I’m hurriedly preparing for handicapping college basketball season by revamping the model. Somehow the model gets bigger every year. Maybe by 2014 I’ll be making bets influenced by nose size and number of siblings. For ldo reasons, at the beginning of the year stats aren’t the end-all-be-all that they are most of the way through the season. For a lot of teams, last year’s stats are worthless for anything more than some general thumb in the wind guesstimate. Using the returning players isn’t much of a solution either. Individual player valuations are 1) still shitty in basketball 2) even shittier in CBB with little player history and far from static ability levels 3) not all that helpful since player turnover in CBB is ridiculous. Basically, I avoid games early in the year where most of the PT is wearing the same uniform but doesn’t resemble any incarnation of previous years’ teams.

Every year, I also go back through my old kenpom data, since it’s the dysfunctional heart of the model. Kenpom data couldn’t live on its own, but it’s a hell of resource for making your own Frankenstein. As an aside it’s the people that reply to homer message board posts with “kenpom sez, kenpom sez” that help fuel the donklash against it. Exhibit A being the “LOL WHERE IS YOUR KENPOM NOW” internet mob last March Madness season. It’s smarter than they are, but it’s not as smart as $$$ opinions either. Anyway, since I make so many adjustments to the raw kenpom data, I need to check that data for computational changes year to year. Interestingly, I am fairly sure kenpom made some not so immaterial changes to how he adjusts his efficiency stats. Think of it as something like the process of what a 50 point dunkfest over a scrub versus a 2 point squeaker over UConn would translate to in each teams’ aggregated efficiency stats after those games. It’s probably the most important part of CBB because there is such little parity.

The data in the chart below is adjusted by me in several ways which I am not going to go through, so this isn’t pure KenPom prediction & results. It is pure KenPom efficiency formulas, just adjusted to remove some bias, but adjusted in the same manner each year. It shows year by year home cover %’s for all non-neutral games. The spread ranges are at the top.



Kenpom used to have a big problem predicting blowouts. Seeing -21 online and -24 kenpom, and betting accordingly would have been a great way to light some money on fire. But it got a lot better last year. Maybe he has done something like muting the impact of UNC crushing Northwestern Quadrant of Idaho Seminary School, I don’t know. But kenpom might be getting closer to needing less and less adjusting. Just as an FYI, the high cover rates between 0-10 are mostly the result of kenpom not incorporating actual outcome distributions. Team A who (on paper) is 1 point better at home than Team B, will cover -1 more than 50% of the time.