on vacation no plays Sunday

2-2 today

Marginal plays aren't beating close, so no more of those.

More 2H: Rider u76

WTF is it with Friday night and slow ass tempos? Hangover from Thursday binge drinking or something? It's like Big 10 basketball for all these teams with moderate to high tempos. Shrug. I'll look into it.

1/31 totals

Hofstra o133

Wake u148.5

Memphis u143.5

Ball St. o118

Utah u137.5

BYU o158.5

Missouri o160

Buffalo o126

New Orleans u137

Northern Colorado u139

Montana o127.5

1/31

Wake -7

Kansas St. +11.5 - you might get better waiting, Im small now

BYU -16 - same

UAB -4.5

JMU -5.5

Portland +4.5 <-- mills out, this is currently dropping like a rock, would take again at +5 through +4

Ohio St. -6.5

Denver +6.5

all for now, going to wait on other books

2H:

Penn u73.5 - snail's pace in 1st half, far below expected

Downswing time. 2-4 sides, 1-3 totals.

Beat close on half the plays, flat against the other half. Five of the sides were already covering at halftime, except Ohio, which was a flip to cover. But, unfortunately the games are 40 minutes long...

Ugh today looks crappy, first three sides looked good at half, and promptly blew up.

1/29

Harvard o141

Rider o142.5

both marginal

Ohio -3.5

Passing on the over again considering the market freefall.

Wow, the market moving with NC Greensboro? This is historic (almost unprecendented). As usual, marginal plays look like they might just be coin flips.

I won't be around for plays tonight because of my anniversary. Fridays are useless anyway.

Three cancels today, weather issues I guess.

1-1 totals, 3-2 sides

1/29 totals

Michigan St. o122.5

Troy o160

Portland u123 (marginal)

ASU u108 (marginal)

1/29
New Mexico St. -5
Portland -2.5
Long Beach St. -4
Citadel -6
Charleston -16.5

A lot of home faves, very weird for me. That's it for now.

Due for a Downswing?

I've never had a graph this pretty, but I don't think I've ever run this good in a sport before. Definitely not mlb anyway. Last year's CBB had a lot more spikes.

1-1 today

1/28 totals

Cuse o154.5

Northern Iowa o131.5

Ohio o130.5

1/28

Hofstra -7

Ohio -4

Missouri St. +7

UConn -12.5

Ball St. +8

Xavier -16.5

Missouri -3.5

Market Odds Bracket

Is coming very soon. I'm just about finished with it and need a couple days to hit everything.

Saved by some pretty ridiculous 3pt shooting and very early bonus. +4u from maxing, -1.5u from the hedge.

4-2 on the day, beat close very well.

Odds are you never got a good enough number to bet the Oklahoma over. In case you did, both teams have utterly abandoned their (fast) tempos in the first half. Not even close to expectation after the initial 5 minutes. At least what I'm calculating from PBP post the first spurt is pretty ugly. Hedging most of my low numbers - 2H u81.5

1/27

Buffalo +1

Totals:

Peay o144.5

Lunardi Bracketology / Kenpom - Bracket Beta 3

New Lunardi Bracketology with approximate Kenpom values for March Madness game odds. Same caveats. It's probably worth my time now to start working on a real market odds version that can be updated easily. Certain teams are getting locked in to a narrow seed range barring extreme variance the rest of the way. Also, keep in mind Duke hasn't played UNC or Wake (four games total), so beware Kenpom's extreme love of them. We've seen several teams (Georgetown, Syracuse) get thrown down the ratings once they started facing comparable talent.

Record Update 1/25

Year to Date:

Rec / Win% / eWin%:  250-150-5 / 62.5% / 54.2%

Spreads:  128-84-4 / 60.4% / 53.2%

Totals:  122-66-1 / 64.9% / 55.5%

Last Week:

All bets:  34-18-1 / 65.4% / 53.7%

Spreads:  15-7-1 / 68.2% / 53.0%

Totals:  19-11-0 / 63.3% / 54.2%

1-1-1 today, got lucky with Rhode Island OT. Minny side beat close, other side and total were flat.

1/26

Totals

Oklahoma o151.5 (this is retardly off, just way way way off)

Niagara o139

Notre Dame o154

Samford u119 (marginal)

Furman u132.5 (very marginal)

Updated for Hawaii:

Our luckbox was strong today. But, we still had equity.

17-5 today, 9-2 sides (eWin 54.1%), 8-3 totals (eWin 52.9%)

Tomorrow is a little dry, I missed the best openers, and I'm burnt out from today, which is all inhibiting me from betting leans. So, there won't be much.

1/25 (all marginal)

Rhode Island o144.5

Rhode Island -5

Minnesota -8

I don't think I'm going tout anytime soon, but I just added a donate button. My father died a couple years ago of thyroid cancer, I donate to a couple charities and will ship whatever I receive on to them. I don't expect anything, and definitely don't give if you're going to want to send a nasty or desperate email whenever I hit a prolonged losing streak. GL as always.

Might not be around for Sunday's open. I'll also start throwing up an eWIN% for Saturday slates, since it's sort of hard to get a sense for how everything did against close otherwise.

Also, Kentucky is the most inconsistent team evar. At halftime: Meeks 5-9, rest of team 3-17, solid.

Update: Halftime whine wins again. It's always better than any statistical system 50% of the time.

1/24

Missouri -17

Butler -12.5 (and -13, marginal, Greek better price)

Kentucky -6 (2u, and -6.5)

Memphis +3.5

Utah +4.5

Oklahoma St. +4 (marginal)

UConn -1 (marginal)

Northwestern +6.5

TAMU +13

Samford pk

Fresno St. +7 (marginal)

Citadel +6 (marginal)

Totals:

Kansas u134

OK St. o139

NIU u140

Drexel u118.5

Boise St. o130.5 (marginal)

Cal o146

Long Beach St. u127

South Alabama u140.5

Stanford o128 (marginal)

Cal Poly o149 (marginal)

Hawaii u129.5 (marginal)

I'm done for the night.

Assuming Portland under loses...

3-2 sides, 7-5 totals today

Again decent against close. The garbage dunk by WVA, up 15 or something with 11 seconds left, to screw u132 was a little annoying. I'm not easily tilted by horrid performances or luckbox threes, but the dickish (FU dunks) or completely mentally retarded (hi I'm J Horne from Arizona and I like to foul with the game tied because I dunno what the score is) stuff for some reason is much harder to take.

Purdue 4/1 to win Big10 (bodog)

If you'd like to flush another $100 down a drain, assuming Purdue holds onto their hudge Minnesota lead tonight, Purdue is about 32-33% to win the Big10. You need 20%. Now watch them lose their next four games.

No sides tomorrow

No totals either. Youngstown St. o130.5 is right on the edge between marginal play and just MOE. It's a play at 129.5 or better.

1-2 sides, 1-3 totals today. Two sides beat close (1pt and 2pts), one flat. Two totals beat close (4pts and 7pts), two flat. First bad night in a while, but the movement was still there.

Actually ended up even maxing the Missouri over through 158.

Yikes, today is going to be a loooooong day. Most of it beat close or at least stayed flat. Unders shooting lights out, overs not so much. Wake on the verge of losing a game they should win 80-90% of the time - right after I bet them to win ACC obv. I'm also watching most of my marginal plays that I never took cover handily right now, and the number of big edge plays are drying up, so expect much higher volume and a little less beating of close. I'll note what's marginal. When I get enough plays I'll break out marginal from non-marginal results.

Also, I'm just adding spread and totals to my last post to keep new post spam down.

1/22

Utah St. -3 <--2u

Chattanooga -4.5

Wisconsin Milwaukee -2.5

Stanford -12.5 (marginal)

Weber St. -10.5 (marginal)

Totals:

Georgetown u132 (marginal)

Middle Tenn u125.5

Purdue o129.5 (marginal)

Valpo o126.5

Zaga o134.5 (marginal)

Poly o127.5

UCSB o140

Cal o126.5

Stanford o147.5 <--2u

Portland u129 (marginal)

Citadel o139 (marginal)

Tenn Martin o153.5

That's it for totals. There's a lot because Greek/BM were 1.5 off each other, making it a lot easier to get a good price on a lean. It's like a free 3% on some of these, just have to pick the right door and you're beating vig.

Record Update 1/21

Rec / Win% / eWin%:  220-132-4 / 62.5% / 54.3%

Spreads: 115-77-3 / 59.9% / 53.2%

Totals: 105-55-1 / 65.6% / 55.8%

Tulane u121.5

Fair would have been more last year. However, Tulane lost a lot of scoring, and Tulsa got a whole lot better on defense. A new junior shotblocking monster of a 7 footer might have something to do with it, so I'm not chalking it up to variance. Tulsa was very short last year. This line opened fair and has moved 5 points the wrong direction, I hope. I usually don't fade big line moves, unless I'm in a mood to set a drum of money on fire and roll it down a hill, but one time dealer.

Update: This is now exactly fair value after their epic collapse tonight.

Wake Forest 5/2 to win ACC (bodog)

Winning is defined as #1 seed for the conference tournament, which is the team with the best conference record. Tiebreaking procedures are numerous, but the first one is H2H. Wake only plays UNC once, and they won, so they hold that tiebreaker. Duke is the only other team with high odds, but they have to play UNC twice, while Wake's schedule (especially after beating UNC and Clemson at Clemson) is full of cupcakes aside from squaring off with Duke twice. I run simulations for all this because of earlier bets, and Wake wins this between 40% and 50%, using market lines or lines created using my model. You need 28% for 5/2 to break even. The UNC line on this is pretty loltastic (4/5). They've got two losses, and one lost tiebreaker, while there are two other top 10 teams with no losses and a schedule full of practical-gimme's outside of playing each other.

However, they've slashed the limits down to $100 (from $600). So, this is basically a rounding error in the grand scheme of the season. I was hoping it was just an overnight thing, but that doesn't look to be the case. So that sucks. If this is big enough to matter to you, realize that if Duke beats Wake twice, gg monies.

1-0 spreads, 2-0 totals today, everything beat close

JMU o133.5

Charlotte o143

Missouri o154 <--- this has got to be a joke. I'd ride it up to 158/159.

UAB no play, override. It's still a slight lean.

1/21

Wake -13

Buffalo -2.5

Clemson +15 (this pains me. I'm on very small because of my homerism. Also, lines tend to move to UNC, so you might want to wait on this, I dunno.)

And an enormous slate of marginal plays. Maybe take a few in the next hour, maybe wait for Greek, but they always disappoint.

Gonzaga 75-1 at Bodog. They're a top 15 team, probably top 10, by any of the reasonable estimators. No other futures market I have access to has anything close to this right now. They look locked in to a 3/4/5/6 seed, which means they won't have to face a #1 or #2 seed until the sweet sixteen. That's fairly important this year given how (so far) there's a fairly sizeable gap between the top few teams and the rest of the pack. Fair is more like 30-1 or better.

For comparison:

Greek: 15-1

WSEX 4-Pay: Buy at 7 (~15-1 or 20-1)

IMPORTANT

USF 2nd leading scorer is "questionable" for tomorrow. Concussion. His absence definitely makes this not a play. College injury report didn't have this info up when I was checking teams. I'm getting out at +6.5, eating some vig, and making this not a play.

Late reported injuries are annoying.

1-0 today

I was waffling between yes/no on -14, and obviously missed the boat on that movement. Nice to get the 1u out of it anyhow.

UAB 2H -1

No real statistical support for it other than a lean on -14 that I passed on, it's just a layup-a-thon versus one team having to take nothing but jumpers. Small bet.

1/20 totals

Illinois u126 (have some 124 too, moved against me and added)

Duke u140 (marginal)

that's it

1/20

Northern Illinois -4.5 (marginal)

1/20

Two or three marginal plays, I'll risk holding off until Greek opens most likely. Totals aren't out yet. Weekdays of small slates really feel much sharper on open.

Bracket Beta 2

I still haven't gotten around to writing the formulas to derive fair market odds. My first attempt at it made Excel drop dead. I need to learn some better software. Anyway, here's Lunardi's updated bracket with what Kenpom (approximately) would say about it. Same caveats as last time.

Record Update 1/18

Rec / Win% / eWin%:   216-132-4  /  62.1%  /  54.3%

Spreads: 113-77-3 / 59.5% / 53.2%

Totals: 103-55-1 / 65.2% / 55.7%

Nothing tomorrow. The one total I wanted already moved. There should be a Lunardi update tomorrow with a fair market bracket, I hope.

2-0 sides, 1-1 totals today

9-7-1 game sides, 5-5 game totals, 3-1 halftimes

Sides beat close well, totals didn't, mostly dragged down by the marginal plays.

1/18

Xavier -12.5

Rhode Island -20

Totals:

Xavier o137

Rhode Island o147

Halftime plays placeholder:

ND 2H pk is tempting, only because Notre Dame is running a little low on eFG. But I don't think I've succesfully middled a game all year.

GT half court offense is just horrible right now - Duke adjusted very well. I've arbed out -8.5 live WSEX.

ULM +2.5

CMich -1

AR +3

UNLV u79

Done updating tomorrow's games for now.

1-0 today, flat vs close - the nature of marginal plays I guess.

Back for half an hour, trying to bang these out.

1/17

Oklahoma St. +8 (marginal)

Oklahoma -3

Butler -2

Illinois +8.5

BYU -1.5

Troy pk

Temple -2.5

Denver +5

Middle Tennessee -1 (-105)

Marquette -1

Cincinnati +1

Idaho +2

Georgetown +9

Ball St. +4

Charleston -10

Mississippi -1

Syracuse -3.5

Totals:

Vandy u134

Marquette o150.5

Wyoming o151

EKY o139

Drake o124

Oklahoma o134

Butler o130

Drexel u140.5 (marginal)

Richmond u139 (marginal)

Memphis u137.5 (marginal)

Maybes:

Cal +4

Boise St. u135

No sides until pretty late tonight.

Record Update 1/16

Incorporates last few days results.

Rec / Win% / eWin%:   195-118-3  /  62.3%  /  54.6%

Spreads: 100-69-2 / 59.2% / 53.2%

Totals: 95-49-1 / 66.0% / 56.3%

eWin% dropped .5% overall, .4% for sides and .5% for totals. In other words, I'm not beating close nearly as much as the first few weeks. But, still ran well above expectation. Part of it is probably that I'm making an effort to play more leans. A 53% play is still a play. They can't all be 55%. I think I have a small handicapping edge, as CBB isn't as efficient as something like NFL or NBA, but it's not 7+%. Ride the wave I guess.

12-7 tonight, 6-4 sides, 6-3 totals

Sides stunk against close today. Seeing much less daily movement now. Totals still had pretty good equity.

1/16

No sides.

Brown o131  (marginal)

Nothing to add. Definitely not waiting on Greek again for totals. They're shaded the wrong way (for me) on everything. Sharp little bastards.

8-3 game sides, 3-2 totals, 1-0 halftime plays. Beat close on most of it. Detailed update in the morning.

I guess totals at night is going to be the norm now at BM? Coming up... not taking a few of these until Greek comes out. Greek doesn't automatically match. A lot of these moved in first 10 minutes, I didn't expect them out again so early. I'll probably be posting around open tomorrow, furiously refreshing BM.

Valpo o123.5

Xavier o150

Wisconsin Milwaukee o142

Nevada u142

ASU u127.5

Chattanooga u155

Niagara o137.5

Rider o134 (marginal)

Murray St. u141

Brackets 2

If you've done a bunch of work predicting brackets and seeding based on the tourny rules and your feelings on the continued strengths of teams, feel free to email it to me and I can output you a tourny odds bracket as shown below. I'll probably have a real market odds version in a couple days, instead of just KenPom.

Illinois by 7 now midway through the half! This is exactly why I try not to hedge with huge exposed middles, I'd lose years of my life sweating about things like an Illinois victory by -6 only to lose double the units.

Well Illinois isn't showing any advantage over Michigan, Michigan probably actually slightly unlucky to be up 1. Michigan 2H +5 leaves a rather large exposed middle at Illinois by 5 and 6. Those numbers will push at very high rates given game spread, total, and current score.

Hooray for no Duke arb indecisiveness. Wade is in fact out, SDSU is up 1 despite possible Wyoming referee homerism. Spain, SDSU's 1st or 2nd best player has 3 fouls. Officially arbing out Wyoming 2H +4.

Well, beat Duke side close by 1.5 pts, and got crushed on the totals close. But at the half the total looks good, while the side is slightly less than <50%. GT ran a little hot, but then their turnover and missing FTs tendencies showed up. Duke seems to have some legitimate trouble scoring between GTs trees, prob taking GT +7 2H against my better judgment :P. I think this kind of result is what happens when UNC fans bet on Duke.

1/15

Butler -7

South Alabama -12

Idaho +8.5

Boise St. +8.5

ASU pk

Chattanooga -6

The Citadel -1

Georgia Southern pk

Xavier -1

Minnesota +7

Leans/Maybes:

Washington -5

Bracket Beta

So I took a few hours to build up a matrix for tournament odds which can easily have teams switched in or out. For daily games I have a couple models that interact to make individual adjustments for each team. At the base of all this are KenPom's efficiency and tempo statistics. It's going to take me a lot more work to build a fair bracket, or in other words, to derive fair market odds. So for now, what's displayed is just what KenPom would say fair futures would be if a certain incarnation of Lunardi's bracket was locked in stone for March. Again, Lunardi's constantly updated bracket prediction is here: http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology

VERY IMPORTANT CAVEATS

1) So far this is just KenPom. KenPom has all sorts of bias in it, and does not adjust for any kind of luck in efficiency stats. KenPom often violently disagrees with market lines. For instance, KenPom evaluates Duke as essentially as good as UNC was supposed to be.

2) Many of the teams in Lunardi's bracket won't even make it in March, and many of the higher seeds may fall to worse seeds. #1 or #2 seeding is hugely valuable over a #3 or #4.

3) Who you have in your region impacts your odds greatly. Not all #1 and #2 seeds are created equal. In the bracket below Duke is severely depressing fair odds for every other team in their region because KenPom thinks they're so fabulous.

The numbers in blue at the top are the rounds, and the percentages below them are a team's odds to make that round. So KenPom would say Pittsburgh is 56.5% to make the round of 8 given how all teams have played to date and given Lunardi's bracket structure.

FWIW I'm sitting on some California 400-1, ASU 70-1, Gonzaga 75-1, Georgetown 45-1, Oklahoma ~50-1 (WSEX 4-Pay), and Marquette ~75-1 (WSEX 4-Pay)

Off the top of my head, KenPom loves Georgetown, West Virginia, and Duke a good bit more than the market does on a daily game basis.

Great... SDSU line just got whacked down, new info came out that Wade (impt SDSU player) is questionable to play today. Might arb out of this if the line comes back around.

update: now +6.5 on bookmaker now if you so choose. Maybe he's playing, I dunno.

Baylor -1 (MB)

Totals are out for tomorrow.

Duke u145.5

Dayton o122

Vandy o128

Houston o147

UC Riverside o130.5

more 1/13

Michigan St. -4

St. Joseph's -3.5

So Miss -3.5

South Carolina +4

0-1 sides, 1-1 totals tonight. No more late marginal totals, not going to beat close doing this.

That Ball St. game was ridiculous. Down 1, 1:30 to go, going to the line for a 1-1. The sequence that follows includes NIU going 0-3 from FT, and 0-5 from the floor. Ball St. covers by 1 as NIU fails twice on putbacks at the buzzer. Just brutal, big favorites to cover there. Eh, this **** happens when you bet several hundred games. Both ways of course. Perception bias ftw.

Tomorrow:

Duke -10.5

SDSU -6.5

Wake -2.5

Illinois -6.5 (very small, need to look at some other things)

CSU Northridge +1

I also like Georgetown -6 (sigh) but I'm already overexposed on their success this year.

That's it for now.

These are both marginal and only tip the scales because of recent trends. I'm on them small. NC State has the bigger edge.

Bradley u129.5

NC State u127

No totals for now, check back around 5, I need to work up a trend section of the model.

There's only a couple marginal totals, and I want a shot at a better line than what BM is hanging. The lines on slow weekdays are seeming much sharper than the days with bigger slates. I dunno, maybe more effort gets put into each one.

In other news, massive push onto Ball St., with +6 available on Matchbook. I'm confused, maybe Newell actually sucked and just ate up time? They're also missing Frazier, their most efficienct scorer who played most of the year. No important injury news for Northern Illinois. I'm going to lose by 20, I can feel it.

Futures soon

I spent some time working up some simulations to predict conference winners. Bodog has these futures periodically but removes them during large slates of meaningful games. Sitting on Georgetown 5/1 and ASU 7/2. ASU looks good, Georgetown blew up but I hedged most of it on Pitt (only game, big tie breaker). Anyway, it might be of use to you for prop bets with friends or other random props. I'll also be regularly producing bracket odds based off Lunardi's work. I don't agree with all of it, but he's doing a lot more than I care to in order to predict seeding. It should help with futures.

Lunardi: http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology

2-0 sides, 0-2 totals. The game sides beat close by a point (54% to win), non-marginal total by 4.5 pts (~60% to win), but wasn't even close to a winner. Marginal play didn't budge. I got some email that effictively asked me what good is beating close and tracking all this eWin business, that squares move the lines all the time, there are systems that don't beat close and are profitable, etc.

Yes, sometime markets develop inefficiencies, and those are exploited until they can't be. But very good luck to you sir if you're going to make a habit out of evaluating your gambling record without regard to how well you beat closing lines in liquid markets. Eventually there's going to be a 3-15 type stretch no matter what you're betting, just keep evaluating your equity when you're contemplating closing up shop. If there comes a point I'm 3-20 in totals and notice I'm not beating close any better than a coin, trust me, I'll stop. Hell, it doesn't really matter what the record is, I'll stop anyway.

Tomorrow is dry as a bone. Only one play, it's injury related.

Northern Illinois +5

Newell, Ball St.'s best rebounder and scorer, is done for the year as of Saturday. -5.5 is fair with Newell in, but I'd guess he's worth a couple points at least. See for yourself:

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/basketball/teams/baa/stats

update: A couple of us pushed this down to +4 already. I wouldn't be surprised to see +4.5 somewhere later tonight, I'd take more +4.5 if it showed up.

Samford u136

The Citadel u141.5 (marginal)

1-1 game spreads, 3-0 game totals, 0-4-1 halftime failage

1/12

Davidson -10.5

Oklahoma -3.5

That's it.

lol ship the 0-4-1 halftime plays

I'm done with these in general, there's not enough time for me to hand calculate some tempo and efficiency stats, and then post. I keep making errors because of it, and inevitably they're much more subjective (I dont have anywhere near the database size and confidence in halftime model). No more halftime plays from me except in a blue moon for some try at a large middle.

Adding UCLA -1.5 if I can get it somewhere I have funds, -2 is not so good with this total

Halftime plays:

Iona u72 2H, had writeup but lost it. Game is on pace to do o132.5, but not o137.

Loyola MD 2H u66

Marist 2H u75

Siena 2H -2 + o76

possible hedge on santa clara. update: meh, no hedge

Hummel and Kramer probable, no Wisconsin +6.

Adding totals now:

Temple o137 (marginal, worst)

Marist o141.5 (also marginal, 1st or 2nd best)

Rider o132.5 (also marginal, 1st or 2nd best)

That's it.

more 1/11

Wisconsin +6 if Hummel is out. You might know sooner than me.

Record Update 1/11

Not including WV/GT/Memphis 2nd halfs because I couldn't post them officially. They went 1-1-1. 

Rec / Win% / eWin%:   164-97-2  /  62.8%  /  55.1%

Spreads: 82-59-2 / 58.2% / 53.6%

Totals: 82-38-0 / 68.3% / 56.8%

Still running hot I guess. I definitely believe CBB close is nothing close to as efficient as NFL or NBA close. The limits and giant swarms of games on certain days prevent that, so eWIN probably isn't long-run expectation. But I also don't believe 58.2% and 68.3% is close to sustainable. Following a spread pick that's even .5 pts worse might actually be a coin flip versus vig (52.4% winners needed, half a point is worth ~2%), so I'd now recommend not taking a line unless you can get the same or better. A point worse on totals is probably fine.

Night game halftimes:

Sigh, more crushing close, then other team crushing my side. I was on +14.5, but -2.5 is ridiculous for the amount of minutes the starters should play in the 2H.

New Mexico 2H -2.5 (Greek hanging .5 better than market)

New Meixco 2h u65 (tempo less than expected, little chance of foul-a-thon)

Back early to watch NFL

1/11

Santa Clara -1

Later game 2H's:

Cuse -4

Going to be gone maybe the rest of the night. Again despite crushing close with -11, Memphis is down 1 and not showing any statistical edge through the half. If anything, a little 3-pt luckboxing. Probably placing Central Florida +8 from iphone before 2H begins if it looks like I can't get +8.5. I can't update from iphone, browser issue with blogger.

Wow, ran good on FTs finally and covered Buffalo... somehow. I'm out for a while, then record update from last few days.

1-0 yesterday (totals)

today so far: 1-4 games sides (but wofford, byu look good), 3-0 halftime sides, 1-0 game totals, 0-1 halftime totals.

Late game totals:

SE Missouri St. o145

that's it

afternoon halftimes:

Marshall u76

that's it

Bleh KU 2H is toast because they're both already in friggen double bonus halfway through the half. And every side looks lost, despite beating close by 1+ pts on almost everything. Prepare to run bad today.

7pm Totals:

WKY o142

Harvard o134.5

Middle Tennesse o123.5 (maxed)

Halftimes:

Oklahoma +2 2H

South Florida +6.5 2H

KU 2H u74.5

Back. Bleh the WV middle looks unlikely now, hooray for hedging though. 

Hopefully no one followed GT with my caveat - I'm on them pretty light and they're not showing any kind of statistical edge in fundamentals over providence. An auto-providence 2H bet is likely. I have no idea what happened with this team, played better than anyone in the nation through UConn game, and now three straight games of looking like St. John's.

update: -8 is a little less than I expected. Not sure.

Good news: Crushed West Virginia +3.5

Good news: Up 2 at the half

Bad news: WV shooting 50%, Marquette 31%, Marquette winning boards and turnovers, and 1-11 from 3.

Marquette should legitimately be up with each team's efficiencies and these rebounding/to inputs. Might hedge for a pretty good sized middle with Marquette 2H -1 in a minute or two, so proceed at your own risk.

Out for a little bit.

Meh got to these totals late, fairly slim value.

Notre Dame o154

St. Bonaventure o149.5

Tulsa u137 (marginal)

No more until 7pm rollout, hopefully I won't miss it before everything decent moves 5 points.

1/10 (adding one by one):

West Virgnia +3.5 (light, not confident)

Kansas +8 (or +7.5, it shifted twice)

Georgetown -12 (they've burned me twice recently, beware)

Buffalo +5

Missouri -2.5

Memphis -11

BYU -9

Air Force +14.5

Wofford +1

EKY -5

A few leans, probably wait on Pinny/Greek.

Iona o122

7-4 today, 4-3 sides, 3-1 totals

God Iowa is pathetic, 7 points through 3/4 of the 2nd half.

Halftime plays for later games:

Morehead St. -2 + o73

South Alabama -2

Utah St. -5

Busy, no halftime plays for early games.

No sides so far for tomorrow.

Arizona St. u130

Elon u146.5

EKY u143

more 1/8

Iowa -1.5

Boise St. -2.5 (-105)

17-5 today, 15-5 sides, 2-0 totals. Did well against close but obviously luckboxed today. Detailed update later.

Considering how much I bitch about being sucked out on unders that go to OT, I feel obligated to recognize that I just luckboxed hardcore with Michigan going to OT when I'm 11 pts away from my over. Two more of those and I'm even on OT bs. Of course they actually have to score 11 points here.

HT plays added minute by minute for 7pm games, trying out a system:

Temple -2.5

Michigan -7.5

GMU -1.5

Harvard +12

East Carolina -4.5

God there isn't enough time in between games for all this crap... also belatedly on Providence 2H (looking good) and Tulsa game line (looking bad).

Contemplating a double up on Michigan -7 for the 2H. They're an absurd 3-19 from three. And despite shooting .241 for the half, they're still on pace for o128.5.

1/8

Utah St. -6.5

Western Carolina -15.5

That it for now. There's a few leans (south alabama, boise st., new orleans) which I might take if Greek gives me a better line or pinny shows movement.

also adding BC -16.5, Cuse -12.5 today

Depaul o146

Indiana o128.5

3-4 today, but beat close on 4 of 5 game lines. Free throw shenanigans continue in Purdue game (missed ft, o reb, layup with 1 second to go) :(

more 1/7

JMU +10

Northeastern -1.5

W&M -4

GMU -6

Cincy -2.5

Michigan -6.5

Drake -13

Fave/dog ratio has been fairly even through 100 bets, but today is heavily skewed to favorites. Shrug.

Halftime plays

Penn St. +3.5: I should probably stop betting games with a team star out, it's very hard to separate individual performance from team performance. Purdue looks exceedingly average without Hummel and Kramer.

Utah pk: Numbers play.

and more 1/7

Hofstra -3

St. Bonaventure -4.5

Tennessee -2.5

more 1/7

Temple -9

Memphis -18.5

Nothing for 7 PM game halftimes.

1/7

Duquesne -2.5, just moved to -3 while posting, I suspect it'll rebound back somewhere.

Several maybes, waiting for other books.

Purdue o126

UTEP u148.5

9-5 today but +3u. Hawaii was the biggest play, beat close by 2.5 pts, but didn't cover.

Updated record fixed.

Rec / Win% / eWin%:   126-71-1  /  64.0%  /  55.1%

Spreads: 55-41-1 / 57.3% / 53.7%

Totals: 71-30-0 / 70.3% / 56.5%

SJ St. -.5 2H

Another hedge, NMS is getting destroyed on the boards, and their only decent big man is in slight foul trouble.

Sweet suckout on Valpo 2nd half under.

Utah St. box score looks ugly, despite being up 6. Utah is not getting more possessions to result in shots, or dominating boards. The FG% is obviously unsustainable.

Idaho 2H +7

Valpo u68.5

Milwaukee -6

Very grinding tempo in the first half, Milwaukee running bad on 3s.

1/6

West Virginia -2.5

Illinois St. -1.5

Purdue -3

GMU u122.5

Temple u139

Valpo o132.5

Hawaii o128.5

Took some of the tentatives.

Manhattan pk

EKY +6

Utah St. -12.5

Az St. o73.5

Offenses are clicking very well, tempo about expected. Should go over ~55% of the time. The biggest danger is if the lead stays razor close, winning team exhausts shot lock, and a foul-a-thon is prevented since the losing team is within a possession late.

1-3 today. Did decent against close but had a half-point Marist loss and a last minute foul-a-thon to kill the Louisville under. There might be a halftime play in the California game.

1/5

Hawaii -5 (big)

Georgetown +1

New Mexico St. +2

Waiting on a few others for now, want to see if Greek gives me better. Those are:

Utah St.

George Mason

Manhattan

Totals are dry as a bone today. Just one play, which is largely a fading of high tempo variance, so I might be hedging at the half. Pinny is leaning to 138.5, so I might wait a bit to see if I can get a better number.

Louisville u138

Georgetown

GT's loss to Pitt at home was a fairly crushing blow to my futures. That's their only meeting, and Pitt owns the tiebreaker. GT's defeat of UConn also further paved Pitt's way. GT is now about 20% to win the conference, Pitt somewhere around 40%, given implied market odds by setting efficiency stats to derive recent game lines. I hedged half my GT futures on a Pitt moneyline, so I now have 10/1 essentially. There won't be another game soon that shifts the odds 10%+, so I'll probably just ride it unless there's a convenient last game or two for the title.

Record Update 1/3

16-8 today: 7-4 sides, 6-4 game totals, 3-0 half-time totals (though 2 were hedges). The insane running hot continues. I think eWin% has about stabilized, historically 54% on sides and 56% on totals has been the ceiling in past seasons with several plays per day.

Rec / Win% / eWin%:   115-63-1  /  64.6%  /  55.2%

La Tech 2H u72

Same issue - hedging, tempo below expected.

South Alabama o73

Effectively hedges out the play, but they're running a tempo well above predicted.

Andddd I'm still in the money except for the fact that they're going to a 2nd OT. Rest of night has run pretty well. I'll try to get some 2H plays out during NFL halftime.

more 1/4

Evansville -2

Sigh, overtime in Denver. That's a few times recently an in the money under went to OT. I've had a couple overs go to OT that had already gone over. I might start betting 1st half unders in non-expected blowout games out of frustration.

South Alabama u140

LA Tech o130.5

Tennessee Tech o152

Jax St. u145

Air Force u116

UNLV u137

1/4

Illinois +1.5

Marist +10.5

Denver u116

Auburn o125

Niagara o143

more being released on Greek as I post...

Clemson 2H u82

Back, totals coming. Beat close a point or more (54%+ to win) on nearly everything, but about even so far on w-l.

Out for afternoon, no more totals.

Rice u141

2-4 today.

After Arizona St.'s win at Stanford, implied market odds of winning the Pac-10 are roughly 35% through a few thousand simulations. True odds are closer to 45-50% using modeled lines from the current year, where Arizona St. has actually been better than UCLA. Bodog has 7/2 (need to win 22% of time). We've mashed it, but they often don't get around to moving the lines for a while.

Finally a crap day.

Stanford can't do anything about Pendergraph without thinning themselves out by the arc to get creamed by Harden. Lead should sustain, Stanford should be pushing tempo to catch up. Rare non-pure-numbers plays, but this seems obvious.

Stanford 2H o74.5

Arizona St. +4

These are probably negatively correlated.

more 1/3

Missouri -6

Maryland -9

1/3 Added Games

Princeton -6

Georgia Southern -2.5

1/3

Ohio St. +4

Georgetown -2.5

W&M +8

Kansas -1.5

Akron +9.5

Utah -11.5

Denver +8

several maybes, waiting for more books

Ohio St./Georgetown/Akron I have multiple units on. I'll be pretty surprised if GT line doesn't move. Fair is -5 or so.

Cal o143.5

Arizona St. u140.5

1/2

Santa Clara -3

Cal Poly +5

Record Update 1/1

4-2 today, but +3u from adding to Troy thanks to my stubborness. I haven't been crushed that badly by a closing line yet this year. Close implied I was ~38% to win with o155.5.

Record update:

Rec / Win% / eWin%:   97-51-1  /  65.5%  /  55.2%

Sub-detail:

Spreads: 41-29-1 / 58.6% / 53.8%

Totals: 56-22-0 / 71.8% / 56.7%

eWin% came down slightly. Totals continue to be softer, but that's old news in CBB.

Adding to Troy at o149.5

I don't get this movement at all. Fair last two years has been ~160.

Detroit 0126

Troy o155.5

Fairfield o136

Iona o132