From overnights

Nor col -3.5
Nms +8.5
Wash -3.5

Zaga o138.5
Cincy o133.5

Model up and running. Betting and feeding bets overnights, posting next day pre gametime Some lines will be stale.

Denver -5
LBS -1.5
Pacific -5.5

More funsies for fix. Should be 100% back to 09-10 model tomorrow.

Troy +2
Manhattan +8.5
South Carolina -2
Nor Col -4

Davidson u137
Tn Tech o141.5
Tn St. o135.5
Peay o128.5
Weber St. o148

The Big 12 is the new Big 10

For my CBB model I take raw data from a few sources, and adjust each game line for a host of factors. I use the CBB Kenpom game log, so when he added games back through 2004 I was able to load in a couple more years. Anyway, with seven years of back data to observe, I've come to the conclusion that the Big 12 might be more rigged than the Big 10.



The table below shows home team cover percentages versus my "adjusted spread" for in-coference games only. "Adjusted spread(s)" are my individually derived game lines with most adjustments made, but not all - so it's not razor precise but is usually within a half-point of my final line (w/out conference & arena adjustments). Part of what is buried in here is that observed HFA is worth 2-3% more in combined BCS conferences than the D1 average. Chalk that up to whatever you want - refs, thundering stadiums, more pressure, etc.

The Big 10 looks like it's getting less rigged, but the Big 12 still has ~4% worth of HFA I can't explain on an individual game basis. It's strange because I don't hear a ton of Big 12 referee bitching, granted I don't read many CBB blogs. Maybe it's refs or maybe it's got a few coaches who like to game rankings or just be mean SOBs and leave in LeMarcus McDunksalot for a few more minutes for a more emphatic win. I dunno.

Almost fully functional, put a little on SDSU, can't even bet the total.

SDSU -2
Davidson o136.5

More semi-finished bets for funzies, hopefully done with edits in a couple days. Reformatting excel is such a pain in the ass, wish I wasn't a VBA noob. Will probably be posting a little before games most days, to get bets down in morning & overnight, so expect staleness both ways.

Citadel +22.5
Montana St. -2
Dartmouth u139
FAU o127
Morehead o132
Eastern Illinois o133.5

Just for funzies, looks this would have made the preliminary list, but I can't look at class composition (I assign weights to prior year based on minutes returning) and I can't look at injuries, and I can't look at conference & team attribute split data. So, I'll just anti-sweat them I guess.

Vcu o133
Kansas u138
Miami o134
TAMU -6.5
Bonaventure o136.5
St. Mary’s -10
Florida +1
Zaga o139
Iowa -3.5
SLU +13
FSU -6
Northern Col pk

Starting Monday looks like - datasources changed formats and it's making some splits gibberish. Also got four more years of back data to go load and datamine.

Starting up CBB