Thursday, March 25, 2010
Updated Sweet Sixteen Market Bracket
Adjusted for last couple dayts steam and pumping Kentucky to the edge of sanity in valuations. Current round win %s per Pinny MLs this morning.
Tuesday, March 23, 2010
Sweet 16 March Madness Market Bracket
Admitedly a little conservative on Duke even though they're still the favorite. Expecting a couple semi-strange lines in FF and champ. S16 lines per Pinny MLs an hour ago or so.
Monday, March 22, 2010
Friday, March 19, 2010
March Madness Bracket - Market Version (Updated)
Updated with todays current Pinny MLs and BM's opener MLs for round of 32 games. Teams in yellow are those that played yesterday. Kansas/NIU line is a little larger than expected. I've bumped Kansas somewhat to compensate given my NIU lines match their most recent closes. So, everyone's odds just got a little worse.
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
March Madness Bracket - Market Version
March Madness Bracket below per gambling market rather than Kenpom. It is updated with Pinny MLs for round of 64 as of a couple hours ago. Further rounds obviously include a good deal of estimation/forecasting by me. Think of the engine as similar to crude Kenpom or Sagarin efficiency numbers adjusted to come as close as possible to matching recent game lines. This isn't what I do on a game basis, but it's good enough for government work in this context.
The odds for favorites will be somewhat overstated, and the odds for big dogs understated. Obv if a 10 seed rolls through to the FF, that FF game line is going to be more favorable to them at that date than a hypothetical matchup between the 10 seed and their FF opponent would be today. It's probably not important enough to impact large edges. I wouldn't wafflecrush +800 because you see +700 fair on this bracket, it isn't surgeon-precise. I can tweak teams to move win odds a couple percent in some cases. +800 vs. +400 would probably be an insta-wafflecrush.
The odds for favorites will be somewhat overstated, and the odds for big dogs understated. Obv if a 10 seed rolls through to the FF, that FF game line is going to be more favorable to them at that date than a hypothetical matchup between the 10 seed and their FF opponent would be today. It's probably not important enough to impact large edges. I wouldn't wafflecrush +800 because you see +700 fair on this bracket, it isn't surgeon-precise. I can tweak teams to move win odds a couple percent in some cases. +800 vs. +400 would probably be an insta-wafflecrush.
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
Kenpom March Madness Bracket 2010
Most March props are out, still some stuff trickling in today. I'll release my own semi rough market bracket sometime tomorrow or the next day most likely. There is still plenty of error in that one, but it's much more representative of market lines than Kenpom.
So, the bracket below uses Kenpom efficiency formulas to arrive at game spreads, which are coverted to MLs (crudely), which are converted to %'s to win. Odds to win it all and odds to make it to the FF are provided over on the right. I stopped displaying odds past a certain threshold just cuz. You could also do this bracket with his pythag #'s and log5, but IIRC it was producing even stranger #'s for certain odds ranges.
So, the bracket below uses Kenpom efficiency formulas to arrive at game spreads, which are coverted to MLs (crudely), which are converted to %'s to win. Odds to win it all and odds to make it to the FF are provided over on the right. I stopped displaying odds past a certain threshold just cuz. You could also do this bracket with his pythag #'s and log5, but IIRC it was producing even stranger #'s for certain odds ranges.
Monday, March 15, 2010
Sunday, March 14, 2010
Saturday, March 13, 2010
Tuesday, March 9, 2010
Monday, March 8, 2010
Record updated. 10% ROI [heart]. I've ditched eROI because I'm so far behind on inputting old closing numbers. It's certainly far worse than last year by now since lately I haven't been betting openers in order to get El Thrempo better limits. I'll probably due it after season end just for LOLs at CBB market efficiency.
Volume kind of shitty this year due to full-time job and being married. That's probably not going to get any better in future years. I also kind of did this full time last year. I'm also being too conservative as usual. Pretty sure the lean-list wasn't -ROI this year.
Going to be fairly quiet for conference tournies until I can get time to rerun my fatigue data. Totals are off limits for non round-1 games right now since I went scarily over-happy last year and it hurt beaucoup.
Conference tourny futures lines have been pretty sharp at most sites, and there's usually not enough to go around. So, odds are there won't be many of those postings from me. I think Greek must have stopped using a dartboard to set those lines; last year was awesome since it felt like they just assumed no one got byes for some tournaments and you'd get hilariously bad lines on some of the top seeds.
Volume kind of shitty this year due to full-time job and being married. That's probably not going to get any better in future years. I also kind of did this full time last year. I'm also being too conservative as usual. Pretty sure the lean-list wasn't -ROI this year.
Going to be fairly quiet for conference tournies until I can get time to rerun my fatigue data. Totals are off limits for non round-1 games right now since I went scarily over-happy last year and it hurt beaucoup.
Conference tourny futures lines have been pretty sharp at most sites, and there's usually not enough to go around. So, odds are there won't be many of those postings from me. I think Greek must have stopped using a dartboard to set those lines; last year was awesome since it felt like they just assumed no one got byes for some tournaments and you'd get hilariously bad lines on some of the top seeds.
Friday, March 5, 2010
Wednesday, March 3, 2010
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