Well, today continued the horror that was this week.

6-12-1 game totals for a 33% winning percentage. Expected winning percentage vs. close = 53.4%. Groan... 1 point losses... 3pt barrage endings on unders... another overtime under kill... and an overtime that still couldn't help an over. Anyway, the equity is still there, but running bad is brutal for bankrolls imo.

Sides were 7-6, 51% expected winning percentage. Again, sides are much much sharper now, so I don't expect to beat vig vs. close in the future. I'll just be doing half-units or less on a recency capping system that hit around 53-54% last couple years. The game system I was using was a 50% winner in the last few weeks over the last couple years. It's done now, too much emphasis on beginning of year/last year performance. The good times for sides are definitely over with rare exception, until the opening round.

Adding Sundays plays now.

2/29

Aagin, recency-system for sides

Buffalo +5

Nor Col -4.5

Totals:

Arkansas u140

Denver u135.5

Duquesne o160

West Virginia u126.5

Oregon u128.5

Maryland u146.5

Illinois u123

recap above

Adding some 2H spreads. If I add, they'll be up minutes after the end of the 1st half. Sides are strictly recency-biased statistical system plays that I didn't get to last night and where I see a good 2H line somewhere. Sort of game-line substitutes.

Going to miss Sunday openers most likely

0-1 totals, beat close by 3pts but Loyola shot 35%

2/28

Sides are a somewhat new method, heavily recency-based, half units for most.

Gonzaga -9.5

Wisconsin Milwaukee -2

Troy -3.5

LSU +5

Samford +6.5

Chattanooga +3.5

Nova -5.5

Butler -6.5

UAB -8.5

Temple +3

Drexel -1

Citadel -5.5

2H recency substitute adds:

St. John's 2H +3

Totals:

Iowa St. u127.5

Kentucky u143

Drexel u118

Gonzaga u131

Nebraska u127.5

Tulane u139

Air Force u132.5

Mississippi u146.5

Valpo o128

La Tech u131

UCLA o147.5

Wofford u133.5

Chattanooga o152

EKY u129

Portland St. o132

Cent Mich u120

Florida Atlantic o134

Eastern Illinois u139.5

Temple u130

Lunardi / KenPom

Over on the right is the new March Madness bracket odds using Lunardi's new bracket and KenPom odds. I'll create a market odds version of the bracket when I see Saturday's lines.

3rd region is the tough one, 4th the easy one. Odds of the winner coming from each bracket are 25/26/32/17 (top-down order).

Changing up Sides

Today's sides are both running bad and not showing much equity, continuing the recent trend.  I just finished backtesting a recency strategy against the last two years, and it did well. So I'll probably be switching the sides method to a heavily recency-biased system, which means more plays and probably half-units.

Totals are still clearly where the major value exists, usually very good equity each day.

1-4-1 sides, meh equity (but could not have run worse in the final minute of these games, just a little dumb shooting variance from being 4-2)

4-2-1 totals, good equity

2/27

Illinois Chicago o131

March Machdness Bracket Odds - Market Derived

The Monday Bracketology 101 bracket with market odds has been added over to the right. Again, I just a run a fairly basically formula to adjust high level efficiency statistics that will derive the most recent game lines for all the teams. Odds will vary depending on league and team HFA differences, and individual matchup differences. HFA differences are more problematic.

The 1st and 2nd regions are tough and the third region is easy, so keep the odds for the other seeds in those regions in context.

1-3 sides, presumably 2-3 totals

Sides didn't have much equity, I'll probably be paring down those picks, the market is tightening up significantly. Miss and Clemson looked decent at the half, but blew up. My coins keep landing tails...

Totals continue to have very good equity (usually 2pts better than close), just running bad to start the week.

2/26

UCLA -5.5

Wisc. GB -6.5

Samford +7

EKY +7

Chattanooga +3.5

Montana +2

Totals:

UCLA o143 (max, taking this through mid-140s)

Memphis u139.5

New Orleans u127.5

Citadel u128.5

Peay u142 (small)

Morehead St. u133 (small)

UC Riverside u134

Middling out of Houston u140.5 with o139

I added a little more pace analysis to the model, and Tulsa (moderate pace, 64 possessions/game) has had a tendency to play up to the pace of faster paced opponents. Houston averages 71 possessions/game. In six of the seven games where Tulsa faced an opponent with adjusted pace above 69, the actual possessions in that game have resembled the pace of the faster team. The other game was the very first game of the year, which has less relevancy. Actual game scores in those six games exceeded projection by 7 points+ each. This might just be variance of course.

We Demand Square Props!

I am disturbed at how sharp Greek's recent CBB props have been. This is deadly accurate. There is a solid 25%-50% vig on every major conference, with an especially large ripoff at SEC +2200.

0-1 spreads, 2-3 totals today. Almost 4-1 totals, but had some rough luck with double OT and Pitt conceding the game earlier than most coaches with 156 two points away.

Very good equity on everything, spread beat close by a full point, each of the five totals beat close by 1.5+ points.

Prepare yourself for carnage tonight imo. Pitt total was 154, and the Pitt coach inexplicably gives up down 8 with 20 seconds left, tells his guys not to foul, where the vast majority of coaches foul in that situation. So, o156 loses by two because the #1 team in the country conceded a game where they still had a non-zero chance to win.

In Northern Iowa, an 80% FT shooter (appropriately named "Johnny Moran") misses both FTs, and a last shot gets missed to send it to OT. Total is u130, score is 110, and I need u20 in overtime, which is usually a decent propsect, but I think a tone has been set...

Update: Yup, it took 2OT to kill that under.

2/25

Duke -5

Mississippi +7

Villanova -13

Clemson -10

Totals:

UC Davis o138

Delaware o137

ODU u122.5

Rice u141

Seton Hall u133

Tulsa u140.5 - middling out

New Bracketology 101 bracket with KenPom approximated odds. Pitt bracket is brutal (Memphis/Pitt are KenPom #1,3), so odds for the other seeds there are somewhat depressed.

2/24

Providence o156

Illinois St. u130

Florida St. u141.5

Nebraska u124.5

TCU u132

Pitt -8

That's all for now.

I'm tempted by KU +2.5. On what planet is Blake Griffin worth 1.5 or 2 points, given his replacement (line would be ~OU -4.5 with Griffin)? I'll assume the market has priced this correctly given I have no data, it just seems weird.

ESPN put up some giant LOL of a bracket from some weekend simulation they did. So, no new Lunardi until Friday. Bracketology101 has a new one, I'll get that up sometime tonight.

2-0 totals today, 17-13 yesterday (9-9 sides, 8-4 totals). Ran hot on totals, cold on spreads this week.

Last Week (Record / Win% / eWin%):

All bets:  31-20-1 / 60.8% / 52.7%

Spreads:  11-13-0 / 45.8% / 52.4%

Totals:  20-7-1 / 74.1% / 52.8%

2/23

Nothing yet

Tracking records and updating daily over on the right now. Good day for totals, bad for speads. Still had good equity on both.

2/22

Villanova o156

Temple u144

2/21

NC Wilmington pk

Butler +6

Vermont -4.5

Canisius +10

LA Tech +10.5

TN Martin -7.5

Boise St. +7.5

SE Missouri St. +4

GMU +8.5

Montana St. +9

Utah St. +5.5

Cleveland St. pk

Memphis -9

Liberty +8

ND St. -1

Added:

Poly -3

OK +2

BYU +2

totals:

Providence o160.5

Missouri u141

X alabama under - line was unavailable, sbr slow

UConn u129.5

Memphis u145

Western Kentucky o135.5 (small)

Rice u131 (small)

Oklahoma o141.5

BYU o140.5

Murray St. u122

Southern Illinois o127.5

Akron o120

UC Davis o148.5

Bracketology101 and Lunardi march madness bracket odds using KenPom are updated on the right. The brackets haven't changed, it just reflects changes in KenPom ratings through the week so far. KenPom actually has Memphis as the #1 team right now. The market doesn't but they're top 5ish territory on a game basis. Both brackets have them squished in with Duke and some other top 5 power, so that region is cannibalizing itself while UNC cakewalks.

There's quite a bit of value on Bodog if you buy these rankings. Of course, that's assuming the team doesn't pull a Duke and immediately underperform ATS like four times in a row by 15 points.

update: Lunardi's bracket changed on Friday - disregard the first paragraph.

Record Update 2/19

Various 2H plays removed per previous post. They were hitting at a rate slightly above games lines. Better on spreads, worse on totals. But again, a lot of that was probably run good given how many were just hedges/middles. It definitely does reveal a higher edge on game totals, which are traditionally softer than sides.

Year to Date:

Rec / Win% / eWin%:  303-208-8 / 59.3% / 53.8%

Spreads:  147-108-5 / 57.6% / 52.8%

Totals:  156-100-3 / 60.9% / 54.8%

2H plays

I just got an email asking me about 2H plays. A couple issues were raised 1) there isn't enough time to follow as I generally make them minutes before 2H tip and 2) is it a different system. I do have a 2H system, but it's simple, not too statistical. Sometimes it's just observational, which is probably square, but I indulge myself sometimes I guess. A lot of plays are also my attempt at half-unit hedging/middling. I agree it's probably a little weird to track that with pure statistical capping (game system), especially when it's hard to follow anyway. So, I'll parse the 2H's out of the record. They've hit at rates a little better than games, low 60's% - but that's mostly just run good over a small sample.

2H Plays

Zaga u71

SD o66

2/20

Dartmouth u131

6-3-1, 1-3 sides, 5-0-1 totals. LSU was so close (had -4, LSU won by 3), if only Arkansas would have shot their 3 a little bit earlier so they could foul :(

n/m posted too late - thanks Jerry

Adding for tomorrow:

California -6 (Greek)

2/19

Xavier -6.5 (warning, market has disagreed with me, and been right last two times)

totals:

UCLA o146.5 (max - this moved immediately. I'm taking through low 150's)

Xavier u136 (small)

Zaga o135 (small)

San Diego u123

all for now

Sigh, I haven't hit a middle all year. Touching = fouls obv continued in the 2nd half. 63 FTs total. I need to find out who the officiating crew was and bet their overs.

If you got a good Kentucky under number, middling o72 2H isn't a bad option. Likely doing it. These are some seriously slaphappy refs. Lots of FTs.

2/18

Youngstown St. +15.5

Houston -5.5

Louisiana St. -4 (big)

Wichita St. +10

totals:

Arkansas u147

Valparaiso o133 (small)

Northwestern o122 (small)

Davidson u139.5

UC Davis o146

Eastern Illinois u136

done for now

1-1 today, beat close on each by a point or two

Bracketology 101 odds also updated.

2/17
Kentucky u136

March Madness Brack Odds Lunardi / Kenpom

New Lunardi march madness bracket off to the right with KenPom winning percentages. For the new, it's not direct KenPom, it's KenPom spreads (slightly adjusted for skew issues) converted to moneylines. I think it's more accurate than just using his pythags. The UConn/Memphis/Duke bracket is clearly the BRACKET OF PAIN, #2,3,5 in KenPom ranking all together. So, each of their odds will be a little bit depressed. Good luck to the low seeds in that one.

Bracketology 101's should be up whenever they update.

Record Update 2/16

1-5 today, won the one game that beat close the least of course.

Through games today:

Year to Date:

Rec / Win% / eWin%:  335-223-8 / 60.0% / 53.8%

Spreads:  168-113-5 / 59.8% / 52.9%

Totals:  167-110-3 / 60.3% / 54.7%

Last Week

All bets:  30-24-2 / 55.6% / 52.9%

Spreads:  11-11-1 / 50.0% / 52.3%

Totals:  19-13-1 / 59.4% / 53.4%

Wow, I haven't done this well against close since the first few weeks, and I'm 0-5. Beat Buffalo side by 3, Duke by 1, and the three totals so far by at least two points. Lol sports betting I guess.

2/16

Charleston o153

Canisius u134

11-7-1 today, no idea how I did vs. close

2/15

Buffalo -2.5

Duke -6.5

totals:

ASU u125.5

Notre Dame o138

Louisville u135

Duke u148

2/14

Florida St. +8.5

UMass -2

BYU -6.5

Weber St. -1.5

UC Davis -3.5

Totals:

UCLA o139

Kentucky u145 (143 still good)

Murray St. u134

UConn u144.5

Kansas u142.5

Creighton o130.5

Youngstown St. u137.5

Cleveland St. o129.5

BYU o136

Davidson u138.5

Eastern Illinois u130

Xavier o141

La Salle u137

Georgia Tech u141

Taking most of these totals very late. I'd take each of the last five at 1+ points worse if they're there whenever you check in the morning, I've added to each as they moved a little overnight.

March Madness Bracket Odds 2/13

Friday's Lunardi updated march madness bracket odds using KenPom lines. Memphis shoots up because they have a very easy draw. Louisville's Pom #'s got blown out of the water yesterday.

7-4 today, pretty well against close, ridiculous ending in Zaga game with the banked in miracle 3.

St. Mary's +4 2H

Foul issues with two important Zaga starters.

2/13

Valpo o123.5

March Madness Bracket Odds Post-UNC Ownage

Bracketology 101 / KenPom march madness bracket odds through games yesterday.

2-1 sides, 3-1 totals today. Also up a few last night. Avoided Duke's breakdown. It's hilarious how once I post about futures on a team, they promptly lose games where they are favored by 10 and lose most of their coinflips. At least Memphis is sailing. Duke +1200 is probably right about fair right now after losing by 30, barely beating Miami FL as big faves, and getting destroyed as 2 pt dogs.

2/12

Buffalo -8.5 (super hudge)

Portland -4

GMU -5.5

Citadel -3

Louisville -2.5

Zaga -3.5

Montana -9.5

Totals:

Pepperdine u129

Washington St. u121.5

Gonzaga u139

I'm probably going to be doing some 2H hedging on a few of these tomorrow.

BYU -17.5

Booo

more 2/11

Cincinnati u131

Oklahoma -2.5

FYI I'm arbing out of TCU +14 at the half. So much for crushing close.

New Bracketology 101 / KenPom

From their Monday bracket release. Bracketology 101.

Links on the right are updated except the market odds, which requires me to recalibrate the high level stats. I'll get around to that tomorrow probably.

2/11

Xavier -2.5

totals:

UMass o141

Memphis u130

Western Carolina u154

That's it for now.

More 2/10

Kent St. u134

New Lunardi / Kenpom

From his Monday release:

Welcome to bad beat Monday.

Jacksonville u147.5 beats close by 3.5 points. At the half, 2H implies game on pace for 142. Looking good. 1:12 left in the game, need less than 13 points, looking good. Then, OWNED. Somehow they scored 16 points in the final minute of a game that was already over winner-wise (up by 9). Lose by 3.

Marist o139.5 beats close by 3 points. At the half, 2H implies game on pace for 155. Lock city! We're around 90% to win this! Nope, they underperform the 2H total by 20 points. Lose by 5.

Murray St. u126 loses to close at u127.5. As much a lock as Marist was supposed to be at halfime. Wins by 14.

Weird day, ended up 1-2 on what looked like 3-0 at halftime...

2/10

TCU +14 (+13.5 good too)

OK St. +9

Wright St. -4.5

Missouri St. +6.5

Totals:

Florida St. u136.5

Wichita St. o115.5

Kentucky u145.5

Record Update 2/9

Year to Date:

Rec / Win% / eWin%:  305-199-6 / 60.5% / 53.9%

Spreads:  157-102-4 / 60.6% / 53.0%

Totals:  148-97-2 / 60.4% / 55.0%

Last Week (last Tuesday through Sunday)

All bets:  31-23-1 / 57.4% / 52.8%

Spreads:  17-9-0 / 60.7% / 52.1%

Totals:  14-14-1 / 50.0% / 53.3%

eWIN%'s down a little. Again, open and the market is definitely sharper, far less large line moves these days.

March Madness Bracket Market Odds, at Last

If the season ended today, using the most recent closing lines, an efficient market would probably price Lunardi's bracket like I've pasted below. I'm not doing Bracketology 101's because their last bracket has some serious errors in it (Northern Illinois is not making the dance, sorry). One thing of note is that Oklahoma is a paper tiger. The market doesn't think they're a top 10 team, and if they manage to game the RPI with small victories over bad teams, there could be some pretty terrific value come March on the other 15 teams in their region.

There are some fairly important caveats for the market bracket I've posted:

1) These are generated using a model that adjusts some high level statistics of tournament teams to derive the past two games of market lines within a half-point to a full point. I use factors in my main model that apply to individual matchups which I can't incorporate feasibly in a giant excel matrix. That said, the differences should be small (~3% or 4% delta in individual game probabilities, which should mostly randomize themselves out of a big bracket. To illustrate, North Carolina's odds to win it all are a factor of hypothetical moneylines with the 32 teams they could face * the odds each of the 32 teams makes the championship game * the odds NC makes the championship game).

2) Bad teams that upset good teams in March will be given some credit by the market. If North Carolina is -18 over some mediocre small conference team, they won't be -18 over them if they meet in the final four. That team will have knocked off some good at teams at long odds. So, the odds of poor teams are probably a little better than posted, and the odds of good teams a little worse than posted. Again, the differences will generally be small.

3) Odds can shift quite a bit depending on the bracket. I can get a 25-1 team to become 35-1 if I move them to the right region.

4) The season doesn't end today, and some weekend outcomes are going to change this around. Small changes in high level metrics can make dramatic changes in tournament odds. If I had to guess, once I see the next Gonzaga line (after being crushed as four point favorites by Memphis), they'll be more like 45-1 than the 34-1 below.

1-3 today. Two beat close, two flat, ran pretty bad on totals FG%'s for the weekend. I should have march madness bracket odds with Lunardi / market lines up fairly soon.

2/8

Jacksonville St. u147.5

Marist o139.5

Murray St. u126

Nice to see more 50% shooting on my unders and 40% shooting on my overs. Bleh.

March Madness Bracket Odds Sticky

Update: Both brackets current through Saturday's games. Memphis of course improving quite a bit after crushing Gonzaga on the road.

For ease of access, off to the right I'm compiling updated March Madness bracket odds using various combinations of bracket structure (Lunardi, Bracketology 101 blog) and odds (KenPom, market lines).

Recovered from a crappy start. 14-10-1 today. 5-3 games sides, 6-6-1 game totals, 1-0 halftime sides, 2-1 halftime totals. Expected vs. Pinny close was 52.3% for sides and 51.9% for totals.

2/8

Indiana St. +16

Totals:

Charlotte u128

Stanford o150.5

Wake u152

2H plays:

UCLA -3 from prior post

Princeton u61

UAB u71

Baylor o84

I'd just like to add:

Major syndicate action on Duquesne vs. Xavier tonight, making virtually no sense in the context of recent lines. Duquesne's first half: 17-21 FG, 8-11 from three. This confirms my suspicion that syndicates have in fact invented time travel, because that crap is not cap-able.

About to go out for the afternoon, will miss Sunday open. Probably taking UCLA -3 from iphone.

2/7

Missouri -7.5

Xavier -6

Youngstown St. +11.5

Wichita St. +5.5

Boise St. +5.5

Chattanooga -5.5

Citadel +6

Troy +1

Totals:

Northeastern u142

Oklahoma u137

Arkansas u145 - adding, also 144

Southern Illinois o119

Indiana o135.5

UConn u136

Clemson u138.5

Baylor u160 - adding, also 159

Nevada o148 - adding, also 149

Utah St. u123.5

Rider o148.5 - adding, also o149

Furman u141.5 - adding, also 140.5

Elon u139 - adding, also 138

Adding extra units to some totals bookmaker moved an hour later overnight, 2-3+ points of value on those at posted lines.

March Madness Odds: Lunardi Bracketology / Kenpom

3/10 Update: Latest Lunardi bracket odds using KenPom on the right.

UPDATE: Bracket updated. Lunardi put a new one up today. I'm going to put up another one using these guys, who had a lot of success last year predicting brackets. Fixed some large MLs that were off by about 1% too.

There have been some notable outcomes this week, so I'm posting a midweek update with Kenpom's stats updated through yesterday's games. Again, for the unfamiliar, this is Lunardi's most recent projected bracket, and game lines strictly using KenPom's prediction formulas. I don't use his odds to win derived from pythag/log5 - I take his spread formula and make ML conversions. I think there's more of a market disconnect with the pythag approach. I promise I will have a market odds version of the bracket up by the end of the weekend, I'm just about done buying up the futures I want at this point.

The 4 in the blue bar would be read as 'odds to make the final four'. And obviously the 2 is 'the odds to make the championship game'.

8-5 today, 4-2 sides, 4-3 totals. Again, sides half flat and half beat close, totals mostly beat close (except WKY). Pulled at least one game out of you know where. Check Cleveland St. pbp for the glory. Beat Florida International total close by 9 points, I'm pretty sure that's a record for me.

No sides tomorrow
No totals either

I have some leans but Ivy league plays owns me.

Clemson 60-1 (bodog)

After humiliating Duke, fair on this is about ~35-1. Their performance metrics are finally nearly identical to the last couple years, so it seems like a decent spot to get in. They have 9 games remaining in the ACC, and they don't have to play UNC anymore or go to Duke. The hardest game they have, and the only one in which they won't be favored, is at Wake. In other words, things are lining up for a decent seed (likely a 3) that should help them avoid facing a big 1 seed early (UConn or Pitt would be the biggest worry, ACC sweet sixteen match-ups will probably be scheduled out).

4-5 today, sides half flat and half beat close, one total beat close well, the other by a point. The one side I crushed (WVA) just wasn't even close. Oops.

Experimental sides went 8-7, totals 9-7 if Colorado game doesn't get to OT. I've done some more back-testing and gotten great results in the past couple seasons of taking totals the main system leans on and where the recency experimental model agrees. So, there should be a lot more totals to come. Experimental sides back-testing wasn't significant. So, that will stop. Basically tempo fluctuations meant something in certain cases, efficiency fluctuations much less so.

1/5 totals
New Orleans u131
FIU o122.5 (o124 is good too)
ASU u136
Cal o150.5
Wofford u144
Vandy o135
WKY o145

1/5
Youngstown St. +8
Santa Clara +5.5
Pacific -2.5
Cleveland St. -1.5
Citadel +5
Samford -3.5

Going to be late to open today by an hour or so

Experimental plays

I've got a new system with an extreme recency bias that works on differences between OOC play and conference play. I'm still hammering down confidence intervals and all that jazz, so I'm betting these selectively and very very lightly. I'll track them separately in the record, but will probably just end up dropping it all together. There are already far too many plays. I hope you like unders, it's by design.

Spreads:
Indiana +3.5
UMASS -4
Tulsa -1
Northeastern -8
UCF -2.5
La Salle +1
VCU -16
Utah -3.5
LSU -6.5
Cincy +3
Nova -1.5
Creighton -1.5
Southern Illinois +1
Minnesota +8.5
Duke -4

Totals:
Nova o148
Indiana St. u119
Tulsa u134
Miami OH u114.5
William & Mary u113.5
Bowling Green u123
Dayton u132
NC Wilmington u153
Georgia u135
Tennessee u157
Delaware u128.5
Mississippi u143.5
Oklahoma St. u166 (fading main system)
Duke u146 (with main system)
Memphis u128
Colorado u121
Murray St. u136

4-0 today, sides flat, total beat close. I don't expect to beat close too much betting double digit road faves, but probably should have waited for better numbers that the inevitable bet big home dogs action would create. Still, betting on Eastern Michigan to lose by single digits to nearly anyone on the planet seems like a waste of good money-toiletpaper. UConn women versus Eastern Michigan, let's make it happen.

2/4
Missouri +5
Minnesota +9
OK St. -11.5
Nova -2.5
Utah -3.5
VCU -16
WVA +2.5

Totals:
Oklahoma St. o161.5
Duke u146

done for now

Record Update 2/2

Year to Date:

Rec / Win% / eWin%:  274-176-5 / 60.9% / 54.1%

Spreads:  140-93-4 / 60.1% / 53.1%

Totals:  134-83-1 / 61.8% / 55.2%

Last Week (last Monday through today)

All bets:  24-26-0 / 48.0% / 53.0%

Spreads:  12-9-0 / 57.1% / 52.1%

Totals:  12-17-0 / 41.4% / 53.8%

Meh not running all that badly, I've had several consecutive weeks of running well above expectation. Mean reversion ftw. Still beating close, but it's a sharpening market that has less large movements off open these days.

0-2 today, crushed Niagara total close, had 10 pts of equity at halftime, and not even close. Might have something to do with Iona not scoring a point in the last 11 minutes of the game. And the #232 offense in D1 basketball dropped 95 points on the road vs. GA Southern. I had leans on Davidson and Niagara sides too, but of course no more marginal plays. At least when I run bad it's usually no shot in hell kind of outcomes - less annoying than buzzer beaters I guess.

Memphis 60-1 on bodog. I'm done with them, ~30/35-1 is fair given recent market lines. You'll probaby find 50-1 through 30-1 elsewhere.

It helps that they won't be a dog in another game this year except Zaga.

2/3
Marquette -11

BYU -11.5

Akron -10

Totals:

UNC o155.5 (small)

lol three double digit road faves. You'd actually be surprised how well these have done this year...

March Madness Bracket Odds - Lunardi Bracketology / Kenpom #4

I'm still trying load up on a few teams, so no market equivalent bracket yet. I'm done with Duke and Gonzaga, and can confirm that while the market is not as bullish on those two as Kenpom - +1200 Duke and +5000 on Gonzaga are value compared to just rolling MLs over in the tournament.

Same caveats etc...

Duke +1200 (Greek)

Given recent game lines, if the tournament were played today and Duke had a 1 or 2 seed, fair is +750. That's also about what you'll find at most sites. I hate Duke, so I'll probably just arb this if they get deep. This is obviously subject to Duke implosion risk.

2/2

Georgia Southern -3.5

Niagara o135.5

10-9 yesterday, record update later