Sunday, February 15, 2009

Record Update 2/16

1-5 today, won the one game that beat close the least of course.

Through games today:

Year to Date:
Rec / Win% / eWin%:  335-223-8 / 60.0% / 53.8%
Spreads:  168-113-5 / 59.8% / 52.9%
Totals:  167-110-3 / 60.3% / 54.7%

Last Week
All bets:  30-24-2 / 55.6% / 52.9%
Spreads:  11-11-1 / 50.0% / 52.3%
Totals:  19-13-1 / 59.4% / 53.4%

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2 comments:

  1. Greg HickmanFebruary 16, 2009 at 3:14 AM

    Keith,

    Love the blog. Big UNC hoops fan here.

    One question: what does eWin% mean? Is it the percentage you must win to break even?

    Thanks!

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  2. KeithFebruary 16, 2009 at 11:34 AM

    Close. eWin% is my estimation of the % of bets I should have won in an efficient market using my line (always -110) versus the closing line on Pinnacle (sharp book). At -110 I always need a 52.4% winning percentage to break even.

    The estimation is derived using push percentages for historical game spreads. So, if I bet -2.5 and it closes -2.5, my eWin% is 50%. If it closes -3.5, it's closer to 54%.

    So, any difference in my actual winning percentage versus expected winning percentage is either: capping skills, fading skills, or variance.

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