Wednesday, February 25, 2009

Middling out of Houston u140.5 with o139

I added a little more pace analysis to the model, and Tulsa (moderate pace, 64 possessions/game) has had a tendency to play up to the pace of faster paced opponents. Houston averages 71 possessions/game. In six of the seven games where Tulsa faced an opponent with adjusted pace above 69, the actual possessions in that game have resembled the pace of the faster team. The other game was the very first game of the year, which has less relevancy. Actual game scores in those six games exceeded projection by 7 points+ each. This might just be variance of course.

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