Monday, January 19, 2009

Gonzaga 75-1 at Bodog. They're a top 15 team, probably top 10, by any of the reasonable estimators. No other futures market I have access to has anything close to this right now. They look locked in to a 3/4/5/6 seed, which means they won't have to face a #1 or #2 seed until the sweet sixteen. That's fairly important this year given how (so far) there's a fairly sizeable gap between the top few teams and the rest of the pack. Fair is more like 30-1 or better.

For comparison:
Greek: 15-1
WSEX 4-Pay: Buy at 7 (~15-1 or 20-1)
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4 comments:

  1. snaaarfJanuary 20, 2009 at 1:20 PM

    Great find, thank you. Are you not worried the line will be voided based on how far off WA it is?

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  2. KeithJanuary 20, 2009 at 2:01 PM

    Not particularly. They put up 75/1. Ben and I hit it down to 60/1. Futures came OTB during the weekend, then this came back up 75/1. Apparently some more action has only taken it down to 70/1. They know what they're offering and seem satisfied with that range. TBH 15-1 is a pretty crappy WA line for a team with virtually no shot at a top two seed, if that is actually the WA line.

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  3. snaaarfJanuary 20, 2009 at 2:19 PM

    This comment has been removed by the author.

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  4. snaaarfJanuary 20, 2009 at 2:22 PM

    Thank you, sir. I think something around 30-1 is WA, which still makes 75-1 pretty damn good.

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