Monday, January 12, 2009

2-0 sides, 0-2 totals. The game sides beat close by a point (54% to win), non-marginal total by 4.5 pts (~60% to win), but wasn't even close to a winner. Marginal play didn't budge. I got some email that effictively asked me what good is beating close and tracking all this eWin business, that squares move the lines all the time, there are systems that don't beat close and are profitable, etc.

Yes, sometime markets develop inefficiencies, and those are exploited until they can't be. But very good luck to you sir if you're going to make a habit out of evaluating your gambling record without regard to how well you beat closing lines in liquid markets. Eventually there's going to be a 3-15 type stretch no matter what you're betting, just keep evaluating your equity when you're contemplating closing up shop. If there comes a point I'm 3-20 in totals and notice I'm not beating close any better than a coin, trust me, I'll stop. Hell, it doesn't really matter what the record is, I'll stop anyway.

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