Update: This is now exactly fair value after their epic collapse tonight.

Wake Forest 5/2 to win ACC (bodog)

Winning is defined as #1 seed for the conference tournament, which is the team with the best conference record. Tiebreaking procedures are numerous, but the first one is H2H. Wake only plays UNC once, and they won, so they hold that tiebreaker. Duke is the only other team with high odds, but they have to play UNC twice, while Wake's schedule (especially after beating UNC and Clemson at Clemson) is full of cupcakes aside from squaring off with Duke twice. I run simulations for all this because of earlier bets, and Wake wins this between 40% and 50%, using market lines or lines created using my model. You need 28% for 5/2 to break even. The UNC line on this is pretty loltastic (4/5). They've got two losses, and one lost tiebreaker, while there are two other top 10 teams with no losses and a schedule full of practical-gimme's outside of playing each other.

However, they've slashed the limits down to $100 (from $600). So, this is basically a rounding error in the grand scheme of the season. I was hoping it was just an overnight thing, but that doesn't look to be the case. So that sucks. If this is big enough to matter to you, realize that if Duke beats Wake twice, gg monies.