Wednesday, May 20, 2009

5/21
SEA -110 / 1.8u

another wtf line, imo, slight overbet - might arb

watch it close at -105 now

added: BOS -165 / .8u
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2 comments:

  1. snaaarfMay 21, 2009 at 12:16 AM

    I'm surprised Philly is not a play...

    Blanton: 6.86 ERA, 4.57 xFIP, 4.19 ZiPS projected rest of season FIP
    Owings: 3.95 ERA, 5.33 xFIP, 4.67 ZiPS RoS FIP

    What am I missing? -110 can't possibly be fair...

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  2. KeithMay 21, 2009 at 10:29 AM

    It's close. I would have bet at gametime had I seen lineups (Reds subbed in a couple AAA players).

    Owings' bat actually makes a big diference, but you're probably including that. I would have been all over -110 if I plugged in an average pitcher value in the 9 spot. I mean, honestly, they should convert the dude to a right fielder.

    Blanton's projected BB/9 ZIPS seems about .5 too optimistic to me, at this exact point in the season. He might work his way back, but BB/9 tends to trend up or down midseason, not instantly correct back .75 after 200 innings.

    Owings' H/9 and HR/9 looks a little pessimistic. Given the rate stats (last several years IFFB% should lead to a lower BABIP and HR/9 than there projecting).

    But yeah, if you take projected ZIPS as true, it's a clear bet.

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