Saturday, April 18, 2009

Big equity today, and finally back in positive territory. I sat in the first row behind the Baltimore dugout at Fenway, so I'd like to think my heckling of Eaton added an extra cent or two of equity :). Anyway, always nice when you effectively get paid to go to the game.

Also, rooting for the Red Sox in person is painful. I feel pretty dirty right now.

I can't remember if this was the situation last year, but generally the big equity from line moves are coming from openers underestimating great pitchers and overestimating horrible pitchers early on. Eaton shouldn't have a job, and Billingsly is superstar territory. It's almost like with the exception of accepted superstars (Lincecum, Santana, etc), openers are assuming a floor and ceiling just before the extremes for most all other pitchers.

4 comments:

  1. I have to ask, would Washington have been a play yesterday?

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  2. But, like I said, WAS is a play nearly every day using common projections, so I don't feel weird accepting that the market disagrees. Market > PECOTA, CHONE, etc.

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