Tuesday, April 21, 2009

4/22 adds
Not counted as openers - don't expect to beat close much. Previously, I was sort of shutgun modeling - spitting out lines using many different projections and two different run estimators, then betting when it all agreed on a play. I'm removing outliers now, and putting more faith in PECOTA/Chone, the better projection systems. It's going to cause quite a few more plays early on, but I still have the market data to get a good sense for whether to take something at open which may move quite a bit, or wait and concede I won't beat close by much.

PHI -125 / 1.1u
NYN -102 / 2.4u

No comments:

Post a Comment