Tuesday, December 30, 2008

Free Monies

Bodog has Georgetown 5/1 to win the Big East. They've already beat UConn, at UConn, which was huge for their chances. I ran a few thousand simulations of conference play based on hypothetical spreads -> ML conversions, and Georgetown wins the Big East between 30-40% of the time. That range includes some smoothing of efficiency stats that are likely to regress somewhat throughout the year.

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