Tuesday, March 10, 2009

Conference Tournament Maket Odds

I'm using current Pinnacle (or BM for Thursday) lines for upcoming games plus the past two conference games lines as predictors of projected game lines for every possible matchup in the bracket, then dropping it in the tournament matrix. I'll keep tracking MAC for any of you who managed to get Kent St. +1200 or Akron +800.

The schedules and seeding are here: Conference Tournament Schedules

Google Documents Fair Odds for Tournaments:
Big East - Louisville easiest double bye path
SEC - 1pt HCA for Florida (games in Tampa)
Big 12 - 1pt HCA for Oklahoma and OK St. (games in OKC)
Big 10 - 1pt HCA for Indiana and Purdue (games in Indy)
Pac 10 - 2pts HCA for UCLA and USC (games in LA)
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2 comments:

  1. yoyodyneMarch 11, 2009 at 4:08 PM

    Clemson can't be more than 2x odds over FSU to win the ACC when they have to play an extra game just to get to FSU.

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  2. KeithMarch 11, 2009 at 5:06 PM

    That first game is vs Georgia Tech. They are ~80% to win that game given current odds.

    When (if) they meet FSU, they will be several point favorites. If that seems weird, notice they were favored by 1 point at FSU three games ago. And then of course going forward Clemson has higher odds to beat UNC/Duke/Wake/etc.

    There's a reason FSU has longer odds if you check conference futures on gambling sites (+1500 FSU, +1000 Clemson on Greek). 2x might not be exact, but FSU's odds are definitely longer than Clemson's, and by a non-trivial amount.

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