I'm not an authority on CBB, but I have pretty good knowledge derived from data analysis, plus I know a few people who have been at this longer than I have and do this professionally. And no, I'm not talking about random 50 year old guy who lives in Vegas, reads box scores all day, and makes decisions overusing concepts like "motivation" or "they're due", or rely on sample sizes of three games to make definitive conclusions. I mean the career lineshoppers with large valuable databases.
Very succinctly, CBB is pretty beatable, and it stays that way throughout the year (for totals at least). Totals are far easier to beat. Anyway, there's a reason limits are lower for CBB, and lower for totals. The first few months, through January or so, it's not uncommon to beat totals by 7+ points or sides by 2+ points on a fairly regular basis. In recent history, close isn't even efficient during this period. It's actually profitable to bet large lines moves AFTER the steam is finished, for many subsets. Lines just don't get moved enough. I don't know if that's a function of low limits and limited volume to sufficiently move lines, or what. In the 2nd half of the season, openers sharpen, 1 point on sides and 3 or 4 points on totals are more frequently the best movements of your day. Betting after steam is still >50%, but doesn't beat vig. Essentially, for a winning bettor, your equity against close for the first half of the year is understated, but it's a good barometer for the 2nd half of the season. This season bears out the dramatic change in the market pretty strikingly.
It hovers around 57%, and then crashes down to 54%. Last year was identical. My totals system has never changed. I've only paid more attention to recency biases after about a month at 53%, and gained about 1% of equity for it. I'm not sure what happens, like if some switch gets flipped at the line makers book and they go from 'thumb in the wind' or 'just use last years lines' to a more technical analysis with current season stats. Limits are low, so it's not terribly costly to let bettors sharpen your lines when data is scarce in the beginning of the year. Midway through, it's pretty easy to make a line. In the long run, over the 2nd half, my actual winning percentage shouldn't deviate much from the 54%, assuming I can keep getting the equity.
I ran over expected (60%+) at the start, which happened last year as well, and has for many other people. Close just isn't efficient. Around the drop, I've typically run almost exactly at expectation, plus a very small handicapping edge from a close that still isn't truly efficient, but not exploitable on it's own either. I'm running a little below expectation over the last 75 or so because I can't buy a 1 or 2pt win and run really bad at avoiding or hitting overtimes. Going forward, 54-55% is roughly expectation.
The sides are a similar story. They get more action and have higher limits, making it progressively harder after the midseason magical switch flip. Unless you play just a game or two per day, or less, you likely don't get enough equity against close to cover vig. The value there is totally derived from a (hopefully) small handicapping edge that gets you around 53%. At this point in the year, for sides I'd really do better to just focus on lineshopping and get in before steam fully moves something. The expectation should be about the same if you're any good at it, and it's less work. But, I'm addicted to this stuff and don't have time to squat on Pinnacle and race to insta-hit any line that twitches.
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