2000 simulations using market bracket:
2000 simulations using Pinny's FF futures (yes/no vig free):
Error range of about 1.5% again for the big %s.
0 has some value. 1 at 12/1 is just a total linesetting fail. $75 max. The BE and B12 props have no value.
Three Big East teams has a tiny bit of value, line at +180 with +175.6 fair using Pinny's lines.
ReplyDeleteYeah, at $75 max or w/e I was looking for lines well outside the error range.
ReplyDeleteI'll take my $1.20 in EV :p ... It's not hard to calculate the exact combinatorial probabilities, which would eliminate the error from the simulation. I have an Excel spreadsheet that makes it easy, I can send it your way if you're interested.
ReplyDeleteYeah - I know how to calculate combinations using Pinny vig-free. I have entire bracket simulations built up and I just need to check/uncheck boxes to get quick estimates on almost any prop question. I'm not too concerned about calculating exact edge, I'll just end up maxing whatever's juicy on bodog. Thanks though.
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