Tuesday, December 8, 2009

Harv o137.5
prov o141.5
wisky u137.5
mich u136
uconn u148
San Diego u137

all moved an asston, harv was slimest value, uconn and wisky are 5-6 off IMO
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4 comments:

  1. snaaarfDecember 8, 2009 at 4:23 PM

    Illinois over down to 143. What do you do in these situations?

    ReplyDelete
  2. KeithDecember 8, 2009 at 7:15 PM

    Accept defeat usually. My smaller money isn't brighter than their giganto money.

    ReplyDelete
  3. snaaarfDecember 8, 2009 at 8:05 PM

    What does (always - usually) equal in this instance?

    ReplyDelete
  4. KeithDecember 8, 2009 at 9:56 PM

    I go back and sanity check how I could be off by 6 points. Like if I need to assume some hilariously bizarre tempos for these two teams. If I can't rationalize it, I might double up. I can understand why Illinois closed at 143, that was essentially a tempo mean reversion bet (both teams very high so far), but my data suggested it was unlikely to go regress much while still out of conference play.

    ReplyDelete

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