From overnights

Nor col -3.5
Nms +8.5
Wash -3.5

Zaga o138.5
Cincy o133.5

Model up and running. Betting and feeding bets overnights, posting next day pre gametime Some lines will be stale.

Denver -5
LBS -1.5
Pacific -5.5

More funsies for fix. Should be 100% back to 09-10 model tomorrow.

Troy +2
Manhattan +8.5
South Carolina -2
Nor Col -4

Davidson u137
Tn Tech o141.5
Tn St. o135.5
Peay o128.5
Weber St. o148

The Big 12 is the new Big 10

For my CBB model I take raw data from a few sources, and adjust each game line for a host of factors. I use the CBB Kenpom game log, so when he added games back through 2004 I was able to load in a couple more years. Anyway, with seven years of back data to observe, I've come to the conclusion that the Big 12 might be more rigged than the Big 10.



The table below shows home team cover percentages versus my "adjusted spread" for in-coference games only. "Adjusted spread(s)" are my individually derived game lines with most adjustments made, but not all - so it's not razor precise but is usually within a half-point of my final line (w/out conference & arena adjustments). Part of what is buried in here is that observed HFA is worth 2-3% more in combined BCS conferences than the D1 average. Chalk that up to whatever you want - refs, thundering stadiums, more pressure, etc.

The Big 10 looks like it's getting less rigged, but the Big 12 still has ~4% worth of HFA I can't explain on an individual game basis. It's strange because I don't hear a ton of Big 12 referee bitching, granted I don't read many CBB blogs. Maybe it's refs or maybe it's got a few coaches who like to game rankings or just be mean SOBs and leave in LeMarcus McDunksalot for a few more minutes for a more emphatic win. I dunno.

Almost fully functional, put a little on SDSU, can't even bet the total.

SDSU -2
Davidson o136.5

More semi-finished bets for funzies, hopefully done with edits in a couple days. Reformatting excel is such a pain in the ass, wish I wasn't a VBA noob. Will probably be posting a little before games most days, to get bets down in morning & overnight, so expect staleness both ways.

Citadel +22.5
Montana St. -2
Dartmouth u139
FAU o127
Morehead o132
Eastern Illinois o133.5

Just for funzies, looks this would have made the preliminary list, but I can't look at class composition (I assign weights to prior year based on minutes returning) and I can't look at injuries, and I can't look at conference & team attribute split data. So, I'll just anti-sweat them I guess.

Vcu o133
Kansas u138
Miami o134
TAMU -6.5
Bonaventure o136.5
St. Mary’s -10
Florida +1
Zaga o139
Iowa -3.5
SLU +13
FSU -6
Northern Col pk

Starting Monday looks like - datasources changed formats and it's making some splits gibberish. Also got four more years of back data to go load and datamine.

Starting up CBB

Ok done with system betting baseball. Not crushing open anymore and I can't take the random variance of RISP. Just going to bet vvv small for sweating funsies for rest of year using only ZIPS ROS projections (nothing of my own), blind slave betting it. Will just take whatever line dimes is offering at night and list/track them seperately then. Probably be several plays per day I'm guessing. Who knows maybe it'll make a dollar.

WNBA starts mid-May. That will not be vvv small for funsies. I'll probably be posting mostly stale lines, but some lines none-the-less.

just CHN -145 on open

lol... Pelfrey gives up about as many baserunners as possible without allowing runs, and then weakass NYN bullpen bailed out by rain with 1-2 minutes to spare after end of 5th. I'm about done with baseball, not much way off at open these days anyway.

BOS -156, 1/2 unit (today, in 20 mins)

hedging out 1/2 of Atl at 8c loss -> Chipper got injured today, again.

ATL -115

halfish on SLN -145 tonight

TBA +106 also halfish

NYA -160 halfish

Waffle-sandwiched BOS -160 (Greek)

LAN -150
ARI +112

SEA -178
ARI -106
PHi -228

BOS +122
OAK -133
CHN -158

SLN -185
LAN -155
KCA +165

Pit +181 vicariously imo

FLO -135
Min -113

moar volume when I get time to crosscheck lines versus projection systems

So CBB went well. Lower volume directly related to me having a 9-5 (9-9 sometimes) and marriageaments. Probably ran a little hot on sides. Tourny ended up fine, but I hedged a good amount of Duke wins away. Of course, I'd be SB busto right now if I hadn't hedged furiously last year too.

Will be betting baseball, briefly. Mostly hitting openers, I'm not going to chase gameday lines around again this year. When shit stops moving my way off open, I'll stop I guess. Will also be betting WNBA. Won't be instaposting for a couple reasons, but won't post 1 min before 1st pitch either.

Updated Sweet Sixteen Market Bracket

Adjusted for last couple dayts steam and pumping Kentucky to the edge of sanity in valuations. Current round win %s per Pinny MLs this morning.

Sweet 16 March Madness Market Bracket

Admitedly a little conservative on Duke even though they're still the favorite. Expecting a couple semi-strange lines in FF and champ. S16 lines per Pinny MLs an hour ago or so.

Will post market S16 market bracket later today when futures re-open. Everything crazy with KU out.

ETA: need a little more of a couple seeds, posting bracket tomorrow

March Madness Bracket - Market Version (Updated)

Updated with todays current Pinny MLs and BM's opener MLs for round of 32 games. Teams in yellow are those that played yesterday. Kansas/NIU line is a little larger than expected. I've bumped Kansas somewhat to compensate given my NIU lines match their most recent closes. So, everyone's odds just got a little worse.

March Madness Bracket - Market Version

March Madness Bracket below per gambling market rather than Kenpom. It is updated with Pinny MLs for round of 64 as of a couple hours ago. Further rounds obviously include a good deal of estimation/forecasting by me. Think of the engine as similar to crude Kenpom or Sagarin efficiency numbers adjusted to come as close as possible to matching recent game lines. This isn't what I do on a game basis, but it's good enough for government work in this context.

The odds for favorites will be somewhat overstated, and the odds for big dogs understated. Obv if a 10 seed rolls through to the FF, that FF game line is going to be more favorable to them at that date than a hypothetical matchup between the 10 seed and their FF opponent would be today. It's probably not important enough to impact large edges. I wouldn't wafflecrush +800 because you see +700 fair on this bracket, it isn't surgeon-precise. I can tweak teams to move win odds a couple percent in some cases. +800 vs. +400 would probably be an insta-wafflecrush.

Kenpom March Madness Bracket 2010

Most March props are out, still some stuff trickling in today. I'll release my own semi rough market bracket sometime tomorrow or the next day most likely. There is still plenty of error in that one, but it's much more representative of market lines than Kenpom.

So, the bracket below uses Kenpom efficiency formulas to arrive at game spreads, which are coverted to MLs (crudely), which are converted to %'s to win. Odds to win it all and odds to make it to the FF are provided over on the right. I stopped displaying odds past a certain threshold just cuz. You could also do this bracket with his pythag #'s and log5, but IIRC it was producing even stranger #'s for certain odds ranges.

Weber St. +11

Have market bracket completed, will post after getting first crack at props.

ETSU +21
Maryland -9
FSU pk
Montana +9.5

Temple -3

Col o153.5
Quin o139
Texas St. o145

Record updated. 10% ROI [heart]. I've ditched eROI because I'm so far behind on inputting old closing numbers. It's certainly far worse than last year by now since lately I haven't been betting openers in order to get El Thrempo better limits. I'll probably due it after season end just for LOLs at CBB market efficiency.

Volume kind of shitty this year due to full-time job and being married. That's probably not going to get any better in future years. I also kind of did this full time last year. I'm also being too conservative as usual. Pretty sure the lean-list wasn't -ROI this year.

Going to be fairly quiet for conference tournies until I can get time to rerun my fatigue data. Totals are off limits for non round-1 games right now since I went scarily over-happy last year and it hurt beaucoup.

Conference tourny futures lines have been pretty sharp at most sites, and there's usually not enough to go around. So, odds are there won't be many of those postings from me. I think Greek must have stopped using a dartboard to set those lines; last year was awesome since it felt like they just assumed no one got byes for some tournaments and you'd get hilariously bad lines on some of the top seeds.

maryland -4
cuse +1.5
unlv -18.5
xavier -14.5
byu -10.5
washington -3
coc -5.5

villanova o151.5
purdue u130
alabama u146
south florida u134
colorado o152
coc o148.5

Charlotte +9

FIU u139
Cal o147

Nevada -2

Depaul +14
Ark -1.5

Cuse o158

OSU +4.5

Dayton u137

Ball St. u130
Miami OH u128
Cal o146.5
Presbyterian u135.5
San Fran u135

BYU -14.5
Eastern Illinois -4.5
Winthrop +8
Elon -2.5
Kent St. -8.5

Ark St. +7
Ark Little Rock +13
Wisconsin +1
USC +9
St. Mary's -7
Citadel pk
Sac St. +12.5

Dayton u139.5
Pitt u132.5
Sac St. u131
Austin Peay o151.5

Work -> violently ill -> work

will check for plays today

updated lunardi/kenpom bracket

SWONGS. 24-6-1 since rage-quitting a couple Saturdays ago and ditching most of last season/early season data in the model. Cue 5-19 stretch soon I guess.

Finally getting some downtime to catch up on record keeping. I'll do eWin% when I'm not firewalled. Record/eROI is current though. Sides kind of recovering, totals went apeshit.

11-1-1 I think over past few days, I only run in extreme swongs.

from overnights:

Siena o147

Found it. Here's Lunardi's March Madness Bracketology with Kenpom odds. It's his ratings, his point spread formulas, my win % conversions. No HCA factored in anywhere. I replaced the play in game with Liberty, just because I can and it blows up my matrix if I don't have a team in there.

Obvious caveats:
1) Underdog final win odds are understated. A 10 seed rolling to the final four is going to have much better ratings after winning all those games to get there. A 1 seed will usually be favored, and can roll through most of the tournament without exceeding expectations.
2) Kenpom drools over a few teams which creates lines significantly off-market by several points (ex: Duke, Kansas, Texas).
3) Im not displaying odds for teams that are 1000/1 and up. Those 0%'s do have decimals behind them, I'm not just plugging in a 0 and moving on.

Enjoy:
March Madness Lunardi Bracketology & Kenpom Odds

I'll keep it at the top and update it after each weekend. Come tourny time, when we have the actual teams n stuff, I'll create a market bracket.

Going to be hit and miss for a week or so. From last night:

Michigan +9
App St. -2

LA Monroe u140
Cal o157

Going to throw up the kenpom bracket odds stuff if I can find that old file. Writing up all those h-lookups and v-lookups is kind of a bitch.

md -6.5

overnights

Kansas St. -4 bought from leaning -4.5
Colorado St. -5.5
Marquette -2.5

TCU u119.5
Cleveland St. u132
Creighton o140.5
San Jose St. o157.5
Idaho u146
Nevada u147

port st. -3 was only play

Again from last night

W Mich u129
San Jose St. o152.5
CoC o151.5

Kent St. -3.5
Arizona +9

From last night, pwned on xavier, most totals still near the line

Temple u124
Depaul u126.5
Charlotte u146
Northern Iowa u118

VCU -9.5
Xavier -8.5
Akron -12.5

Traveling recently...

From last night, kind of stale:

kent st. -12.5
kent st. o140
iona u128

Yale u140.5/140

Holding off on a sides for a day or two. Stopped beating close on those recently - midway through year - a lot like last year. Doing the same fix that got equity back then, and now making sure my hypo plays with fix beat closing today/tomorrow first. Basically I think I'm overvaluing last year and early this year.

todays totals were

Loyola Marymount u137.5
Davidson o146
Nor Colorado u135

from yesterday

Uconn u155
Northeastern u117
Duke u141.5

Temple -1
Texas Tech +17.5
BYU -1.5
Nova -11
Georgia +8.5

meh fergot to post

Took Mich St. -3 (yay)
Baylor -2.5 (boo)
UAB u132
NC St. o152

whiff on maryland and kentucky, I think I need to start spamming my leans, they are on an equity roll imo

St. Joes -5.5

boise u145.5/145
coc +6.5

good fucking lord

seriously?

Davidson can't cover up 20 with 5 mins left, prov up 10 with 1 minue, BYU gets worthless 3 pwned

I luckboxed nothing

just idiotic, this year has been incredibly horrible with endings and I'm still up somehow

just goes to show ridiculous CBB markets are

Cincy u142.5, I stopped at that game and am boycotting the rest out of rage

From last night, some worse some better

Osu +6
ten -5.5
Utep -3
USA +7.5
Xavier -6
c mich -5.5
uab +6
prov -5
Byu -3
davidson -5.5

temple u128
bc u132.5
Toledo o127.5
nm o137
wake u139
ec u135
florida u144.5
Utah u122
c mich o127
fiu u141.5
OK o150
duke o144.5
elon u136
tenn st o155

zomg totals with equity won

Rider o136.5 from open, 137.5 is fine too, not like I actually push that hook as much as I'm supposed to. I has win by blowout and lose by a hair down pat.

Indiana +9.5
Pacific -7
Washington -3

Total were from open
Marys u139
Jax St. o143
Marist u136
Peay o153.5

Unreal stretch of losing conflips

I can't even win the ones the syndicates actually like

So annoying

Miami OH +9
BYU -21.5
Bradley +6.5
Nevada -4
App St. -4.5

Bowling Green u130
Toledo o131
Memphis u135
Baylor u149

St. John's +10

W mich -2
davidson -3.5

Tenn -2
Utah -1
Illinois +3

Norfolk -5.5

TAMU o136.5

Syracuse o157.5
Virginia o131.5

WKY -1.5
Virginia -15

hawt on sides - lots decided by a pt or two
meh on totals - getting pwned by last minute and OT lately, still beating close so w/e

But running fire hot on sides and ice on totals for the rest of the year would be totally kosher with me

Wake u147.5

Siena -3.5
FAU +7.5

Illinois +11
TAMU +15
Irvine +14
Kansas St. -5
UAB -4.5
WGB -2.5
Gonzaga -6.5
Weber St. -3
ASU -4.5

Xavier u136
Pitt u138.5
Denver u133.5
Memphis u130
UTEP u136
Portland u149
Pepperdine u142
Creighton o131
Stanford o146
Oregon o143.5

<3 10-3-1 yesterday

Didn't sweat games, won a bunch close

I may try this check balances in the morning thing more often

prov -3

depaul now going to break 20+ conference game consecutive losing streak tonight prob

Officially running below expectation on totals. This is bizarre. Considering how inefficient that market is, it feels more like running a SD+ below expectation. I think I've been getting owned on one-bucket losses, maybe I'll develop a luckbox-o-meter to feel better about myself and my measley 56% winrate.

Arizona +4
Cal -3.5
Miss St. -14
Cleve St. +16
LA Lafayette -2
Fresno St. +10.5
South Alabama -1

Cal o148.5
San Diego u134
Arizona u131
FIU u133.5
Wofford o141
EKY u132

Stl +7.5

la salle -3
cuse -13
tulsa -5.5

all half units because if these lines were retardo off they would have moved by now ldo. work prevented me from getting through the whole list last night, as it has kind of too many times this year. it was much easier to get volume and lines last year when I could sit on a couch for a living. lol at work.

but I like flipping coins sometimes

Western Michigan -1

ODU o128
Indiana St. o123
Western Michigan o129.5
Marshall u143
Nevada u148.5
Elon u137

Bradley +14
VCU -1
Missouri St. -5

lville -2.5

Siena o139.5

Xavier u146
EW u140
San Fran u132.5

Wisconsin u127
Duke u144.5
WGB o136.5
Ball St. u120
Wilmington o133.5
Clemson u143
Rice u129.5
ucla o140
Irvine u144
AR LR u134
Fresno St. u136.5
Davidson u138.5
Tennessee St. o150

Duke -6.5
Missouri -4.5
Marquette +9.5
W Mich -4.5
Georgia +20.5
Riverside -2
Weber St. -1.5
Saint Joseph's -13

Butler +2
St. Mary's -10
Manhattan -3

ASU o136

Cleveland St. u133
Northeastern u124.5

LBS -2.5
Weber St. +8

Air Force u123.5
Duke u146.5

getting effed by connections, maybe back in morning

big equity, big fail, life

Miami OH +8
Purdue -7.5

Dayton u119

VCU -6
George Mason -5
Tennessee St. +14
Jax St. -2
San Jose St. -1.5

VCU u136
Utah St. u139
Northridge o152
Cal Poly u138
Siena o135
Marist o116
Rider o133
James Madison o132.5

Im awesome at winning sides by 7 and losing by 2. Need to employ the "buy three pts on every game system" its more lox.

Iowa St. -5.5
Bradley +10.5
Illinois St. -4.5
Texas Tech -1.5
Michigan -1

Texas Tech o152
Miami FL u137

Nova o151.5
Minnesota u134
Hofstra u134.5
Oregon o151.5
Temple u134.5
Rutgers o127.5
Denver u147.5
UC Davis o149
UC Riverside u138
USC u117.5
Eastern Illinois u138.5

Loyola Chicago +1
Georgia Tech -2
UAB -4
Hawaii +1
Weber St. -3
Illinois -2.5
Marquette +1