March Madness Bracket - Market Version

March Madness Bracket below per gambling market rather than Kenpom. It is updated with Pinny MLs for round of 64 as of a couple hours ago. Further rounds obviously include a good deal of estimation/forecasting by me. Think of the engine as similar to crude Kenpom or Sagarin efficiency numbers adjusted to come as close as possible to matching recent game lines. This isn't what I do on a game basis, but it's good enough for government work in this context.

The odds for favorites will be somewhat overstated, and the odds for big dogs understated. Obv if a 10 seed rolls through to the FF, that FF game line is going to be more favorable to them at that date than a hypothetical matchup between the 10 seed and their FF opponent would be today. It's probably not important enough to impact large edges. I wouldn't wafflecrush +800 because you see +700 fair on this bracket, it isn't surgeon-precise. I can tweak teams to move win odds a couple percent in some cases. +800 vs. +400 would probably be an insta-wafflecrush.