Xavier u146
EW u140
San Fran u132.5

Wisconsin u127
Duke u144.5
WGB o136.5
Ball St. u120
Wilmington o133.5
Clemson u143
Rice u129.5
ucla o140
Irvine u144
AR LR u134
Fresno St. u136.5
Davidson u138.5
Tennessee St. o150

Duke -6.5
Missouri -4.5
Marquette +9.5
W Mich -4.5
Georgia +20.5
Riverside -2
Weber St. -1.5
Saint Joseph's -13

Butler +2
St. Mary's -10
Manhattan -3

ASU o136

Cleveland St. u133
Northeastern u124.5

LBS -2.5
Weber St. +8

Air Force u123.5
Duke u146.5

getting effed by connections, maybe back in morning

big equity, big fail, life

Miami OH +8
Purdue -7.5

Dayton u119

VCU -6
George Mason -5
Tennessee St. +14
Jax St. -2
San Jose St. -1.5

VCU u136
Utah St. u139
Northridge o152
Cal Poly u138
Siena o135
Marist o116
Rider o133
James Madison o132.5

Im awesome at winning sides by 7 and losing by 2. Need to employ the "buy three pts on every game system" its more lox.

Iowa St. -5.5
Bradley +10.5
Illinois St. -4.5
Texas Tech -1.5
Michigan -1

Texas Tech o152
Miami FL u137

Nova o151.5
Minnesota u134
Hofstra u134.5
Oregon o151.5
Temple u134.5
Rutgers o127.5
Denver u147.5
UC Davis o149
UC Riverside u138
USC u117.5
Eastern Illinois u138.5

Loyola Chicago +1
Georgia Tech -2
UAB -4
Hawaii +1
Weber St. -3
Illinois -2.5
Marquette +1

Dayton u142

South Alabama u145
Yale o125
Siena o129
S Dakota u143

ODU o118
Harvard o146.5

ODU -12
Baylor -3.5

Cal o143.5
UTEP u132
Belmont +32.5

owned by 3pt shooting on pretty much everything

hate this side of variance

Florida Atlantic o142
Cuse o160.5
Rhode Island -3
Illinois St. -1
Yale +18
Cuse -3
Xavier -10

Marshall -1.5
Irvine +9

Richmond o134
Col St. o128
Davidson u147.5
Nevada u154
Wake o140
Gonzaga u145.5

UNLV u149.5... only got it once :(

Clones more quickly plz.

If you can't tell, generally going to abandon the 5 minute rat race on open with totals to get bigger volume at smaller egdes upon cloning.

Illinois o147
Fresno St. +7

So Miss -11.5

Beat 4 sides at least marginally... and lose all

Get anhilated by the other close, and win it

Eff betting

Florida o131
Idaho u144.5
Niagara o145.5
Clemson o141.5
Clemson -15
Murray St. o133

LBS -1.5
Pacific -4
Drexel +19
So Miss -16
Citadel +14

tulane u134, someone thinks Im wrong, w/e

fml working on a sunday, probably lost more $ in equity from firewallz than my hourly base here

down 0-2 in CBB today, 0-4 steam chasing other sports

grr today

cornell -6 (was greek)
RI -10.5

Webb +24.5

UAB -4.5
SC -1.5
E Mich +5.5
Miss St. -3

scratch WGB side, injury confusion
EKY +10
Austin Peay +24

WGB o138
LVille u143.5
Utah u141
Memphis u143
Temple o130
Texas Tech o135.5
Wofford o144
Oklahoma o143

Pretty sure I've never beat a total by 12 pts.

Least it won. Holla.

CSUN -2.5

Montana St. -1.5 ( -2 for no pinny here :( )

no totals

Weber St. +14.5

Nevada u161

Nor Col -10.5
UAB +2
Miss -6.5
South Alabama -3.5

Wake o143.5
South Carolina o134
Duquesne o129.5
Northwestern u127.5

NMS +9

Looks like Kenpom is forecasting lines again.

Imma start putting out lol March Madness brackets for funzies using his ratings. Probably does more harm than good but seems like people enjoy it.

Also for the sake of karma I should acknowledge I am running white-hot in 2H's this year after the inital whining of 2H run bad continuation from the tail end of last year. Record would be much worse if every bet was 1H.

So Miss -8.5

So Miss u141.5
St. Mary's u160.5

kenpom calculator updated through weekend's games

G Tech o144

W Mich 1H

7-34 FG (20.6%)
1-14 3pt (LOL %)

gg equities

W Mich +17.5
BC o150
Xavier -3.5
UTEP o149
Clemson -21.5
Portland St. -1

No openers because someone has their entire BM bankroll hanging on one game

cough cough

bets were:

GMU -1.5
Air Force +17
Miss St. -5.5
Florida Atlantic +10
Northern Colorado +1

South Alabama o138
Valpo u150
Ball St. u137
Nor Col o146

late to open, probably not touching anything until clones (late tonight), which is I guess is good for following

although maybe a few totals in about an hour

no totals tomorrow

Wafflemegacrushed a few of those totals yesterday. <3 early CBB season. It's probably fine to take a game 2-3 pts off whatever I post for now, as long as lines are going to move 6-8 pts fairly frequently. For BM releases (not late adds with several books offering) we'll move those lines anyway, so it'll take a disagreeing syndicate to get back to that line. And they probably know more than I do anyway. So I dunno.

Took Colorado -2 before crashing, -2.5 still a 53%-54% play imo. It's not massive value. Was considering Montana at pk, maybe if it hits +2. Hard to tell since Loyola is so different this year.

Rhode u140

Harv o137.5
prov o141.5
wisky u137.5
mich u136
uconn u148
San Diego u137

all moved an asston, harv was slimest value, uconn and wisky are 5-6 off IMO

KenPom Calculator

KenPom calculator now over to the right.

Got a couple emails asking me if I knew when Kenpom was going to start showing forecasted spreads/totals for 2010.

1) I don't know.
2) Plz to not be betting them blindly if you <3 bankroll.
3) I created a little Google doc that gives you those lines.

I'm not 100% it's what he would calculate, but I think it's pretty close. The biggest thing I am unsure of is his home advantage, which he once said meant increasing home efficiencies by 1.4% and decreasing road efficiencies by 1.4%.

To use it, you have to spell the name as it appears on KenPom's sheet precisely. not "Mississippi State", but "Mississippi St.". Otherwise the vlookups return errors. You should only need to input the team names to get lines, nothing else. I'll just update it daily with his efficiency sheet and season averages.

Illinois o144.5
San Fran o135

I R <3 Overs

Texas o140
Hall o148

no sides

nice 9-4 today, with some hudge totals moves <3

clemson -6.5
clemson o151
UCLA u140

se mo st. o126

air force u124.5
cal poly u142
ucsb u133.5
cal u152

the citadel -5

Gmu u146.5
Jmu o119
Hofstra u152
Oregon o146.5
Temple o120
Miss st o133
Vcu u144

TN Martin o138 half

Pounded:

TAMU o131
Mahattan +13.5

Have some others, want better linez.

Ships the movement today.

Looks like BM is doing the regular release schedule finally, so I should generally be around for openers if my jubz doesn't get in the way. Can't promise lines will be fresh as horrible totals are rocketing down after a couple minutes now and a whole lot of hitting needs to get done first.

so late to open :(

UW Milwaukee o133.5 half
Loyola Chicago u142.5 half

EKY +9
CoC -10
TN Martin +5.5 (arbz possible)

BYU o136

East Carolina +12
Duke -3 (sigh)
Irvine -2

Jax St. o141
Col St. o132.5

NC St. -4.5

Greek is better at this

Wyoming o136

thats all

Michigan o134.5 half

probably all unless greek releases everything again

wtf massive totals release

BC o140
Norfolk o137.5 (half)

eff got to go

also, full unit spreads bets now, have enough data to at least hit 52.4%+ on ewin there I think

Wright St. u127

thats all

osu -5
luousville u144.5 half

TCU -4
Boise St. -1.5
RI pk

got to totals a little late, not seeing anything obvious

en fuego

OSU -6

Xavier u151.5 (half)
FSU u140 (half)

books seem more willing to release totals when there aren't 65,987,190.4 games to cap

asu u141

thats it, sporadic updating over holliday

Sacred Heart +17.5

First middle evar

almost

Might hedge out of a couple of these

LSU +8
Northern Arizona +7

Virginia +3.5
Illinois -13.5
Wisky pk <- half a half

Cincy o133.5 (smallish)
Kentucky u145.5 (smallish)
Texas o133.5

Middling out Illinois at +15.5 -105

Ew, line crushaments not helping much today so far

Shipzilla <3 the .300 FG%.

Should have kept whacking at it down to 142 ldo.

I'll get the eWin% crap up today if I get bored enough. I make occasional 2H bets but they aren't really followable, only showing game lines. Spreads eWin% will suck, it's going to be a couple weeks before I expect to regularly beat moves there.

It's going to get harder to get my line on openers bets, a lot of these lines are screaming up/down and I have a few people that need to smash it first. I'll post if the live line still has any value when posting in case of hudge moves.

-----

eWin% stuff up

Vandy u149 (now 146, still good, took more)

SC o140.5 ship line move before hitaments

nothing on the others

Sides:
Nevada -2
Temple -4
Buff +4

Totals:
Was informed BP released totals yesterday without BM. Hopefully more volume there. Spreads are half units, totals are typically max bets.

Christ, 0 totals all day? This is bad.

Siena 2H dirtay +4 hedge

Toledo u142

Nova u143 - effing meetings made me miss open #

<3<3<3 taking a 3 to win instead of a 2 to tie Nova

Nothing else on the other sub-handful of totals

Sure would be nice to run better than 50/50 when I wafflecrush lines, and run better than 0/100 when I get wafflecrushed. :(

Also, last season's latter half system where you bet the oppo side of the 2H line that helps my game bet is continuing to crush. Tempted to try it on the Nevada 2H over since I nearly bet that game under imo.

Yeah sure why not, o76 2H. Lox imo.

Butler u128
Texas o138

Not running too hot on the 6 point move crushes :P

UIC +1

GT u129
ISU +100
Iowa o124.5 ty bm

Scratch NW tomorrow, munching some vig

lol just saw UCLA went to to 2OT and over still lost. Nice 5-29 3pt, .471 FT shooting from white dude dead eye shooters. Think I'm staying away from UCLA for a bit, ie this year.

Sweet, my 2H Montezuma's revenge didn't break over the offseason. At least totals are back imo. Please to not go away.

UCLA o140
SDSU u133
Virginia o124
Auburn o130.5

Groan. TY to comment below informing me totals releases will become a rarity in all liklihood. I'll be back in a couple weeks I guess, whenever I have enough data to feel comfortable doing anything with spreads other than chasing steam. I'll probably do a lot more sizing with spreads (no more flat betting tracking) given having half my plays and a high 50's winrate removed.

Boooo

wtf one total releases for like 30 games? Only on Montana for fixz. Back tomorrow, if books bother to actually list totals.

Ship the 5 minutes of free time coinciding with some totals rollout and free wireless internet in hotel. Think I need a few games of game data for spreads, I'm wiffing on movement with bets and near bets. Totals are a little easier since tempos don't fluctuate too wildly year to year under the same coach. Less reliance on blind insight into roster changes.

So. Miss u143.5
UCR u132.5

Stanford -1

Hasn't moved. Hardly anything has moved. Not sure how useful I'll be when lines start flying 5 mins after open, since I generally won't be insta-posting.

Flying to wedding this weekend. Wouldn't expect much of anything. Probably for the best since at the very least I'll know who's getting minutes on each team.

Only one bet for now, some people need more of it, will post later.

OSU u146.5
NC St. u136.5

Christ, that's a lot of free throws. Check ref's phone records imo. I'll post a list of Friday bets sometime later tomorrow, it won't be right at open, but movement seems slow to start off so far.

Cal u141.5

A little weary of Detroit's transfers, who appear to be better offensively, but it's still 7/8 off last season.

Season starts tomorrow <3

Fun with KenPom

So I’m hurriedly preparing for handicapping college basketball season by revamping the model. Somehow the model gets bigger every year. Maybe by 2014 I’ll be making bets influenced by nose size and number of siblings. For ldo reasons, at the beginning of the year stats aren’t the end-all-be-all that they are most of the way through the season. For a lot of teams, last year’s stats are worthless for anything more than some general thumb in the wind guesstimate. Using the returning players isn’t much of a solution either. Individual player valuations are 1) still shitty in basketball 2) even shittier in CBB with little player history and far from static ability levels 3) not all that helpful since player turnover in CBB is ridiculous. Basically, I avoid games early in the year where most of the PT is wearing the same uniform but doesn’t resemble any incarnation of previous years’ teams.

Every year, I also go back through my old kenpom data, since it’s the dysfunctional heart of the model. Kenpom data couldn’t live on its own, but it’s a hell of resource for making your own Frankenstein. As an aside it’s the people that reply to homer message board posts with “kenpom sez, kenpom sez” that help fuel the donklash against it. Exhibit A being the “LOL WHERE IS YOUR KENPOM NOW” internet mob last March Madness season. It’s smarter than they are, but it’s not as smart as $$$ opinions either. Anyway, since I make so many adjustments to the raw kenpom data, I need to check that data for computational changes year to year. Interestingly, I am fairly sure kenpom made some not so immaterial changes to how he adjusts his efficiency stats. Think of it as something like the process of what a 50 point dunkfest over a scrub versus a 2 point squeaker over UConn would translate to in each teams’ aggregated efficiency stats after those games. It’s probably the most important part of CBB because there is such little parity.

The data in the chart below is adjusted by me in several ways which I am not going to go through, so this isn’t pure KenPom prediction & results. It is pure KenPom efficiency formulas, just adjusted to remove some bias, but adjusted in the same manner each year. It shows year by year home cover %’s for all non-neutral games. The spread ranges are at the top.



Kenpom used to have a big problem predicting blowouts. Seeing -21 online and -24 kenpom, and betting accordingly would have been a great way to light some money on fire. But it got a lot better last year. Maybe he has done something like muting the impact of UNC crushing Northwestern Quadrant of Idaho Seminary School, I don’t know. But kenpom might be getting closer to needing less and less adjusting. Just as an FYI, the high cover rates between 0-10 are mostly the result of kenpom not incorporating actual outcome distributions. Team A who (on paper) is 1 point better at home than Team B, will cover -1 more than 50% of the time.