Tuesday, December 1, 2009

BYU o136

East Carolina +12
Duke -3 (sigh)
Irvine -2
Posted by at

8 comments:

  1. AnonymousDecember 2, 2009 at 7:19 AM

    How much of this year's data are you currently using vis a vis projected numbers? This is about the time where I struggle with the optimal ratio of projected/actual.

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  2. KeithDecember 2, 2009 at 8:33 AM

    It depends mostly on the composition of the teams versus last year. Given fairly similar teams, last year still dominates for me absent a major change.

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  3. KeithDecember 2, 2009 at 8:40 AM

    Also keep in mind many of the games to date have been David vs. Goliath revenue-fests with scrubs running a muck for a good portion of the game. Not as indicative of future performance as results of conference games.

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  4. snaaarfDecember 2, 2009 at 11:42 AM

    Would you mind saying to what number you would still make plays? (I assume there is more leeway with totals)

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  5. snaaarfDecember 2, 2009 at 5:00 PM

    Thanks that makes sense but never occurred to me. One more question. How do you figure out expected win percentage? Use a half point calc to figure your win expectancy for each bet and then find the average?

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  6. AlanDecember 2, 2009 at 7:28 PM

    Seeing the Irvine score makes me rage rage rage at not jumping on the bets I could this morning and instead napping again.

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  7. KeithDecember 2, 2009 at 8:55 PM

    Weird, earlier comment got deleted.

    I just said to use push %s with eWin% or actual win% to figure out at what point a line has moved too much. 1 pt on spreads (non pk,1,extreme faves) and 2 pts on totals is probably too much movement to tail, generally.

    I figure out expected win% by using my database of all CBB closing lines vs game results to determine push%. The difference between my line and the closing line, with the sum of the push% + 50% = eWin%.

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  8. KeithDecember 2, 2009 at 8:56 PM

    Meh don't rage, 1-2-1 today imo.

    I hate Duke, should probably stop betting them as they pwn my soul every year regardless of equity.

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