Wednesday, December 2, 2009

so late to open :(

UW Milwaukee o133.5 half
Loyola Chicago u142.5 half

EKY +9
CoC -10
TN Martin +5.5 (arbz possible)
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4 comments:

  1. snaaarfDecember 2, 2009 at 10:46 PM

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  2. snaaarfDecember 2, 2009 at 10:47 PM

    "I just said to use push %s with eWin% or actual win% to figure out at what point a line has moved too much. 1 pt on spreads (non pk,1,extreme faves) and 2 pts on totals is probably too much movement to tail, generally."

    Thanks.

    "I figure out expected win% by using my database of all CBB closing lines vs game results to determine push%. The difference between my line and the closing line, with the sum of the push% + 50% = eWin%."

    Can I use the half point calc to determine push%? I don't follow how to determine eWin%. Why isn't it the number the half point calc spits out as 'win prob?' Could you give an example of how you figure eWin?

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  3. KeithDecember 2, 2009 at 11:00 PM

    half point calculator is good enough for government work

    it's not smoothed and off for a few numbers imo

    example: Pretend I bet ShipIt St. -3.5. Say Pinny closes at -5.5 -105. My eWin% would be 50% + push of -4 + push of -5. SBR half point calculator gives you those numbers, but I use my own data for my calculations.

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  4. KeithDecember 2, 2009 at 11:02 PM

    And obv the push of -4 and -5 are contingent upon games with closing lines ~ -5.5

    I think the half point calculator factors this, but gets very imprecise several points away from the true line

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