Friday, April 17, 2009

Christ, blown late inning leads on every play today, including a 5 run lead in the 8th. Standard.

Also, I don't think I can bet MIL or WAS games anymore, half-seriously. They're the team versions of Javier Vazquez. They're composed of a larger than normal collection of players who don't come close to their projected numbers. So, I'm not sure how to value them. MIL beat close slightly, only probably because lots of people think Hernandez sucks. WAS didn't beat close. Anyway, that reasoning is the rational part.

The less rational part is that they also lose games in tilty ways, which makes subsequent shitty bets more likely. Today was a pretty good example. WAS blows a save by a lofty HR that clears the fence by a couple feet, then get behind in the 10th on a rinky-dink roller between 3rd and short, then Dukes crushes a ball (leading off down 3-2 in the 10th) about 6 feet too low to be a HR, and the next few guys proceed to watch balls down the middle like a bunch of tourists. Dukes never gets further than 2nd. And of course the MIL bullpen blew their game, complete with an ending that involved Louis Castillo luckboxing a game winning ground ball slapper with 2 outs that was too slow to ever throw him out on.

So yeah, probably bye MIL and WAS for now, I don't trust the projections of a solid handful of starting position players and relievers, and sweating your games takes years off my life.

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