Thursday, March 12, 2009

I'll prob be adding some sides in a bit. Pretty good equity on the totals, so I don't feel like a schmuck for going under heavy. Starting out with a Miami FL under win, and the Ball St. under just got blown up by an overtime. Running just insanely terrible in the last minute of these conference tournament games, if you need someone to miss/hit a FT, it's not happening.

Also FYI, if you got the bet, I'm hedging some of the Buffalo/Kent St. Game. That $300 to win $3600 is currently worth ~$925. Just betting enough to win $300 and recoup losses. If you lose you get most of the equity back in the implied worth of the Kent St. position. Either team will be big favorites (~8) against Ball St., then the final game will be another near coinflip against Miami OH or Akron in all probability. In that scenario it's worth more around $750-$800, but there's value in the chance Miami OH/Akron loses to Bowling Green or Ohio (inferior by several points).

I have a slightly +EV Miami OH position, so I'm not doing the same with Akron, which has less equity in it anyway (the $300 is worth ~$550).

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