Well, today continued the horror that was this week.

6-12-1 game totals for a 33% winning percentage. Expected winning percentage vs. close = 53.4%. Groan... 1 point losses... 3pt barrage endings on unders... another overtime under kill... and an overtime that still couldn't help an over. Anyway, the equity is still there, but running bad is brutal for bankrolls imo.

Sides were 7-6, 51% expected winning percentage. Again, sides are much much sharper now, so I don't expect to beat vig vs. close in the future. I'll just be doing half-units or less on a recency capping system that hit around 53-54% last couple years. The game system I was using was a 50% winner in the last few weeks over the last couple years. It's done now, too much emphasis on beginning of year/last year performance. The good times for sides are definitely over with rare exception, until the opening round.

Adding Sundays plays now.

2/29

Aagin, recency-system for sides

Buffalo +5

Nor Col -4.5

Totals:

Arkansas u140

Denver u135.5

Duquesne o160

West Virginia u126.5

Oregon u128.5

Maryland u146.5

Illinois u123

recap above

Adding some 2H spreads. If I add, they'll be up minutes after the end of the 1st half. Sides are strictly recency-biased statistical system plays that I didn't get to last night and where I see a good 2H line somewhere. Sort of game-line substitutes.

Going to miss Sunday openers most likely

0-1 totals, beat close by 3pts but Loyola shot 35%

2/28

Sides are a somewhat new method, heavily recency-based, half units for most.

Gonzaga -9.5

Wisconsin Milwaukee -2

Troy -3.5

LSU +5

Samford +6.5

Chattanooga +3.5

Nova -5.5

Butler -6.5

UAB -8.5

Temple +3

Drexel -1

Citadel -5.5

2H recency substitute adds:

St. John's 2H +3

Totals:

Iowa St. u127.5

Kentucky u143

Drexel u118

Gonzaga u131

Nebraska u127.5

Tulane u139

Air Force u132.5

Mississippi u146.5

Valpo o128

La Tech u131

UCLA o147.5

Wofford u133.5

Chattanooga o152

EKY u129

Portland St. o132

Cent Mich u120

Florida Atlantic o134

Eastern Illinois u139.5

Temple u130

Lunardi / KenPom

Over on the right is the new March Madness bracket odds using Lunardi's new bracket and KenPom odds. I'll create a market odds version of the bracket when I see Saturday's lines.

3rd region is the tough one, 4th the easy one. Odds of the winner coming from each bracket are 25/26/32/17 (top-down order).

Changing up Sides

Today's sides are both running bad and not showing much equity, continuing the recent trend.  I just finished backtesting a recency strategy against the last two years, and it did well. So I'll probably be switching the sides method to a heavily recency-biased system, which means more plays and probably half-units.

Totals are still clearly where the major value exists, usually very good equity each day.

1-4-1 sides, meh equity (but could not have run worse in the final minute of these games, just a little dumb shooting variance from being 4-2)

4-2-1 totals, good equity

2/27

Illinois Chicago o131

March Machdness Bracket Odds - Market Derived

The Monday Bracketology 101 bracket with market odds has been added over to the right. Again, I just a run a fairly basically formula to adjust high level efficiency statistics that will derive the most recent game lines for all the teams. Odds will vary depending on league and team HFA differences, and individual matchup differences. HFA differences are more problematic.

The 1st and 2nd regions are tough and the third region is easy, so keep the odds for the other seeds in those regions in context.

1-3 sides, presumably 2-3 totals

Sides didn't have much equity, I'll probably be paring down those picks, the market is tightening up significantly. Miss and Clemson looked decent at the half, but blew up. My coins keep landing tails...

Totals continue to have very good equity (usually 2pts better than close), just running bad to start the week.

2/26

UCLA -5.5

Wisc. GB -6.5

Samford +7

EKY +7

Chattanooga +3.5

Montana +2

Totals:

UCLA o143 (max, taking this through mid-140s)

Memphis u139.5

New Orleans u127.5

Citadel u128.5

Peay u142 (small)

Morehead St. u133 (small)

UC Riverside u134

Middling out of Houston u140.5 with o139

I added a little more pace analysis to the model, and Tulsa (moderate pace, 64 possessions/game) has had a tendency to play up to the pace of faster paced opponents. Houston averages 71 possessions/game. In six of the seven games where Tulsa faced an opponent with adjusted pace above 69, the actual possessions in that game have resembled the pace of the faster team. The other game was the very first game of the year, which has less relevancy. Actual game scores in those six games exceeded projection by 7 points+ each. This might just be variance of course.

We Demand Square Props!

I am disturbed at how sharp Greek's recent CBB props have been. This is deadly accurate. There is a solid 25%-50% vig on every major conference, with an especially large ripoff at SEC +2200.

0-1 spreads, 2-3 totals today. Almost 4-1 totals, but had some rough luck with double OT and Pitt conceding the game earlier than most coaches with 156 two points away.

Very good equity on everything, spread beat close by a full point, each of the five totals beat close by 1.5+ points.

Prepare yourself for carnage tonight imo. Pitt total was 154, and the Pitt coach inexplicably gives up down 8 with 20 seconds left, tells his guys not to foul, where the vast majority of coaches foul in that situation. So, o156 loses by two because the #1 team in the country conceded a game where they still had a non-zero chance to win.

In Northern Iowa, an 80% FT shooter (appropriately named "Johnny Moran") misses both FTs, and a last shot gets missed to send it to OT. Total is u130, score is 110, and I need u20 in overtime, which is usually a decent propsect, but I think a tone has been set...

Update: Yup, it took 2OT to kill that under.

2/25

Duke -5

Mississippi +7

Villanova -13

Clemson -10

Totals:

UC Davis o138

Delaware o137

ODU u122.5

Rice u141

Seton Hall u133

Tulsa u140.5 - middling out

New Bracketology 101 bracket with KenPom approximated odds. Pitt bracket is brutal (Memphis/Pitt are KenPom #1,3), so odds for the other seeds there are somewhat depressed.

2/24

Providence o156

Illinois St. u130

Florida St. u141.5

Nebraska u124.5

TCU u132

Pitt -8

That's all for now.

I'm tempted by KU +2.5. On what planet is Blake Griffin worth 1.5 or 2 points, given his replacement (line would be ~OU -4.5 with Griffin)? I'll assume the market has priced this correctly given I have no data, it just seems weird.

ESPN put up some giant LOL of a bracket from some weekend simulation they did. So, no new Lunardi until Friday. Bracketology101 has a new one, I'll get that up sometime tonight.

2-0 totals today, 17-13 yesterday (9-9 sides, 8-4 totals). Ran hot on totals, cold on spreads this week.

Last Week (Record / Win% / eWin%):

All bets:  31-20-1 / 60.8% / 52.7%

Spreads:  11-13-0 / 45.8% / 52.4%

Totals:  20-7-1 / 74.1% / 52.8%