Friday, February 18, 2011

Kenpom Predictor w/ Lunardi Bracket - March Madness

Lunardi's Monday bracket populated with Kenpom which I then converted to win %'s based on observed distributions of spreads vs. win % in his data (smoothed of course). I've got a market bracket built which I'm actually using for futures, will release that when I'm tapped out. But for the Kenpom lovers among you:

Teams in the lower half are probably over-valued, Kenpom hearts a bunch of the teams in the upper half. And of course there is the standard BYU/Duke fanboi-ism. I wouldn't use this as gospel of value unless you saw a line that was rididculously off - like 100-1 vs. Kenpom's 25-1.

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