I started adding in components of last year's model now that we have a decent amount of current year data. It's still Kenpom motored by efficiency stats, but it adjusts for a lot of issues he doesn't: HFA differences, luck in player performance, the effects of team composition on predicted tempo, etc. Tracking starts today. Lines are typically taken at Bookmaker or The Greek.
Syracuse o134.5
UC Riverside u116
USC u130.5
I will also be tracking expected win% for the year, benchmarked by Pinny close. I'm doing some unit sizing, but everything here will be 1u for ease of record keeping. I'll be using push frequencies (by spread/total range of course) from my database, smoothed with a regression.
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