SAC +7.5 .5u

nothing today either - need to parse out some injury/absence data for a few teams, should have time to do that tomorrow

no wnba bets today

nothing on tomorrow's wnba game

SA o164

travelling today, cant make wnba bets, should have bets for tuesday that morning

6/19

CONN -4

no bet on tonights wnba game

Hmmm, have o/u 160 fair for MIN game based on last year, opened at 161. Blah. No plays right now, need to update CY stats.

running crappy on FG% again in early game, watch SEA and CHI shoot .510 later...

CHI u148

Betting through someone at Pinny now, so there should be some plays a couple days ahead of the games. The other books are annoyingly slow.

6/14

CONN o152

More stupid MIN unders openers please, it's taking combined .500 FG shooting to eek out these one bucket losses on the under.

nothing for Saturday's two games

Doing very simple scaled unit thing now with WNBA, lots of smallish plays come up that'll just be .5u. quite the exact science here.

6/12 WNBA

MIN u158.5 <-- this is off by 6 points using last year efficiency stats, imo. More MIN unders. The teams are not materially different than last year, the totals lines were much lower in their meetings, and all that's changed is MIN is shooting 55% from the field and >50% from 3pt land in their first three games... because that's sustainable. Hell it took that kind of performance to kill the under 2 days ago, and it still only died on the last second shot. You can probably assume I'm auto on the MIN under for a while, I'm riding these to my doom.

CHI -4.5

PHO o169 / .5u

IND u144 / .5u

lol I sweated my first WNBA game today, since I'm bored out of my skull in a random city... and the MIN under lost with 3 straight long jumpers wth 30 seconds left in a meaningless ending. That happens fairly often I guess, probably a little less than 1/10 of the time, but I'm taking that as a sign to never ever do that again.

6/10 WNBA

MIN u161

PHO o166

Groan, I have to bet against Cueto again tomorrow. Taking the 5in line tomorrow assuming it doesn't move much (refuse to take the WAS game line).

9/9 MLB
MIN -107 / 1.1u (game)

PHI +163 / .5u (game)

Basically smallish bets come up on Happ, against Cueto, and a couple random pitchers who are running hot or cold. It's definitely getting to be more trouble than it's worth updating all this crap every day. Every once in a while I guess you find something and go nuts with units, like Beckett returning to form, or Verlander becoming CY again, but it's getting less likely that pitchers will be perceived wildly different from start to start the more we get into the year.

No bet on tomorrow's WNBA game, Detroit is missing 3 of their major players from last year, I don't have a basis to bet on them yet.

Holy line movement, was -6, min +6, was u151 now

Tempted to call it quits on MLB, plays very infrequent now

6/7 WNBA

MIN +8

WAS -4

WAS u158

This feels like betting on competitive Latvian Midget Tossing or something, I'll never watch a second of any of these games and have no clue who anyone is, they're just numbers to me. And I think it's probably easier this way.

If anyone ever comes up with relevant qualitative information like what Ben found about UCLA's uptempo switch midseason, please share, because I'll be damned if I'm reading up on anything but injuries.

Also, the teams are so few and the season so short that any final result this year is going to have a crapload of variance in it, probably enough to throw you in the red at season's end even with getting decent edges regularly. Just so you know.

6/6 WNBA

CONN u155

PHO o162.5

MIN -2

CONN -7.5

WNBA time! Model almost done, bets for Saturday's games late tonight.

Yuck, Lohse early injury and maybe it's possible Cueto has perfected the 250 foot laser beams at left fielders with men on base. STL wouldn't have won either way, but that dude is blessed.

BOS -138 / .5u (game)

ATL -132 / .6u

more 6/3

PHI +110 / .5u (game)

I'm in love with Happ. I typically avoid Young at home with slight model value, but I'm hoping being a FB pitcher even at PETCO isn't going to help all that much with the Phillies.

Wow 5-1-2 today, with some last minute rallies, good error shenanigans, and wins/pushes that would have been losses if I'd done the other inning bet. When it rains it pours, both ways.

SFN -147 / 1.6u

PIT +140 / .4u (game)

BOS +125 / .5u (game)

KCA +149 / .3u

ATL -115 / .4u (game)

OAK +130 / .6u

SLN -116 / .2u

SDN - 155 / .2u

6/3

SLN -120 / 1u (game)

More Cueto babip aments. Last time this moved 20c or something overnight in my favor, then boomeranged right back with the syndicates. I don't think it's nearly as off this time.

love this so much

http://www.mattwietersfacts.com/

I've really got no idea what to do with BAL games right now. PECOTA and ZIPS believe he will instantly knock around AL hitting, actually PECOTA thinks he's already one of the best hitters in the AL. I have no basis to question that other than the fact that there's not really a huge sample size of super touted guys with those kind of numbers. Yeah Braun panned out, immediately, but how many didn't? Kind of hard to put money on the expectation he'd hit 25/30 jacks if we started the season over right now. Maybe I'll just use a 25% PECOTA projection or something so I don't feel like a lemming. If that still gets me a BAL bet, eh, why not.

CLE +172 / .8u (game)

OAK +135 / .4u (game)

PHI -113 / .4u